John Mearsheimer and Jeffrey Sachs | All-In Summit 2024

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What is the Deep State Party and what are their goals?

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one of the most influential and
世界上最有影响力和

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controversial thinkers in the
争议性的思想家之一

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world he is known as one of the world’s
他被认为是世界上

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leading experts on economic
经济

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development one of the most famous
发展方面的领先专家之一 历史上最著名的

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political
政治

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scientists in
学家之一

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history we’re talking about moral and
我们在这里谈论的是道德和

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political principles here I would
政治原则 我

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suggest that all four Wars could be
建议所有四次战争 可能会

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ended quickly great power politics is
很快结束，大国政治

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now back on the table if we are anything
现在又回到了桌面上，如果我们

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as a world Community we have to
作为一个世界共同体，我们必须

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implement what we’ve
实施我们

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[Music]
[音乐]

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[Applause]
[掌声]

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said I’m excited for this panel we’re
所说的事情，我对我们

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going to talk about foreign policy uh we
将要讨论的这个小组感到兴奋 外交政策呃我们

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have I think two of the most interesting
有我认为有两个 关于外交政策的最有趣的

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imminent renowned thinkers about foreign
即将到来的著名思想家

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policy uh professor John mimer from
呃，芝加哥大学的约翰·米默教授

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University of Chicago and Professor
和

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Jeffrey Sachs from Columbia so great to
哥伦比亚大学的杰弗里·萨克斯教授，很高兴

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have you guys here

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today it’s uh it’s a it’s a big world
今天你们能来到这里，呃，这是一个很大的世界

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and there’s a lot of things happening so
，发生了很多事情，所以

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let’s just jump into it um the big news
让我们来谈谈

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over the past week was that Dick Cheney
过去一周的大新闻是迪克·切尼

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endorsed kamla Harris for president I
支持卡姆拉·哈里斯竞选总统，我

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think for people who see the world in
认为对于那些从

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partisan political terms this might have
党派政治角度看待世界的人来说，这可能

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been surprising but I don’t think that
会令人惊讶，但我不这么认为 认为

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you guys were that surprised by that do
你们对此感到惊讶吗，

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you see an underlying logic to this um
你们看到这个的潜在逻辑了吗，嗯，

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Jeff why don’t I start with you
杰夫，我为什么不从你开始呢，

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I think it’s obvious there’s basically
我认为很明显，基本上有

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one deep State party uh and that is the
一个深层的政党呃，那就是

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party of Cheney uh Harris Biden uh
切尼呃哈里斯·拜登呃维多利亚的政党

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Victoria newand my colleague at Columbia
我在哥伦比亚大学的同事纽安德

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University now uh and uh newand is kind
是

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of the face of all of this because she
这一切的代言人，因为她

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has been in every Administration for the
在过去 30 年里一直在每一届政府中任职，

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last 30 years she was in the Clinton
她在克林顿

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Administration wrecking our policies
政府中破坏了我们

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towards Russia in the 1990s she was uh
对俄罗斯的政策 20 世纪 90 年代，她

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in the Bush Administration Jor uh with
在布什政府和

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Cheney uh wrecking our policies towards
切尼一起破坏了我们对

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NATO enlargement uh she was in uh then
北约东扩的政策，当时她在

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the Obama Administration as Hillary’s uh
奥巴马政府，首先是希拉里的

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spokesperson first and then making a
发言人，然后

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coup in Ukraine in February 2014 not a
在 2014 年 2 月在乌克兰发动政变，这不是一个

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great move started a war then she was uh
伟大的举动，引发了战争 然后她是

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Biden’s uh uh under Secretary of State
拜登的呃呃国务卿

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now that’s both parties uh it’s a a
现在是两党呃这是一个

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colossal mess and um she’s been Cheney’s
巨大的混乱，嗯她一直 切尼的

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uh adviser she’s been Biden’s advisor
呃顾问她一直是拜登的顾问

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she she uh and uh makes perfect sense
她她呃呃完全有道理

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this is the reality uh we’re trying to
这是现实呃我们正在试图

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find out if there’s another party that’s
找出是否还有另一个政党是个

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the big question and John what’s what’s
大问题约翰你对此有何

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your thought on that do you see any
看法你认为

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difference between uh Republicans and
呃之间有什么区别 共和党和

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Democrats no I like to refer to the
民主党 不，我喜欢将

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Republicans and the Democrats as Tweedle
共和党和民主党称为 Tweedle

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D and Tweedle du
D 和 Tweedle du

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there’s hardly any difference I actually
几乎没有任何区别 我实际上

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think the one exception is that uh
认为唯一的例外是

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former president Trump when he became
前总统特朗普 他

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president in 2017 was bent on beating
在 2017 年成为总统，一心想

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back to deep State and becoming a
击退深层国家，并成为

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different kind of leader on the foreign
外交政策方面不同类型的领导人，

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policy front but he basically failed and
但他基本上失败了，

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he is vowed that if he gets elected this
他发誓，如果他这次当选，

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time uh it will be different and he will
呃，情况将会有所不同，他会

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beat back the Deep State he will pursue
反击 他将奉行

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a foreign policy that’s fundamentally

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different uh than Republicans and
与共和党和

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Democrats have pursued up to now and the
民主党迄今为止所奉行的外交政策根本不同的外交政策，摆

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big question on the table is whether or
在桌面上的一个大问题是

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not you think Trump can beat the Deep
你是否认为特朗普能够击败深层

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State and these two established parties
国家和这两个老牌政党

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uh and i’ bet against Trump John um and
呃和我’ 打赌反对 特朗普约翰嗯和

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Jeff but let’s start with John can you
杰夫，但让我们从约翰开始，你真的能

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actually Define for us for me I don’t
为我们定义一下吗？我不

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understand when people say deep State
明白当人们说深层状态是

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what it is I almost viewed the term
什么时，我几乎滑稽地看待这个词，

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comically we have one of our friends in

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our group chat who we called Deep state
我们的群聊中有一位朋友，我们称之为 深州

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who is he’s deep State he’s really in
是谁，他是深州，他真的处于

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the Deep state but we say it as a joke
深州，但我们说这是一个笑话，

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but for maybe the uninitiated what does
但对于外行来说，

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it actually mean what are their
这实际上意味着什么，他们的

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incentives who are
动机是什么，他们是谁，

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they Jeff maybe you want to start or
杰夫，也许你想开始，或者

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John you want to start yeah I’ll say a
约翰，你想开始，是的 我说

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few words about it when we talk about
几句话 当我们谈论

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the Deep State we’re talking really
深州时，我们实际上谈论的

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about the administrative State it’s very
是行政国家，了解这一点非常

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important to understand that starting in
重要：从

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the late 19th early 20th century uh
19 世纪末 20 世纪初开始，

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given developments uh in the American
考虑到美国

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economy it was imperative that we
经济的发展，我们必须

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develop and this was true of all Western
发展，这是事实 在所有西方

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countries a very powerful Central State
国家中，有一个非常强大的中央国家，

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that could run the country and over time
可以管理这个国家，随着时间的推移，

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that state has grown in power and since
这个国家的权力不断增强，

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World War II the United States as you
众所周知，自第二次世界大战以来，美国

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all know has been involved in every nook
一直参与到

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and cranny of the world fighting Wars
世界各地的战争中。

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Here There and Everywhere and to do that
和无处不在 要做到这一点，

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you need a very powerful administrative
你需要一个非常强大的行政

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State uh that can help manage foreign
国家，可以帮助管理外交

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policy but in the process what happens
政策，但在这个过程中，

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is you get all of these highlevel
你会得到所有这些高层

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bureaucrats middle level and lowlevel
官僚、中层和低层

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bureaucrats who become established in
官僚，他们

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positions in the Pentagon the state
在五角大楼、国务院、

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department the intelligence Community
情报部门任职 凡是

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you name it and they end up having a
你能想到的社区，他们最终都会

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vested interest in pursuing a particular
在追求特定的

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foreign policy and the particular
外交政策中获得既得利益，而

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foreign policy that they like to pursue
他们喜欢追求的特定外交政策

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is the one that the Democrats and the
正是民主党和

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Republicans are pushing and that’s why
共和党正在推动的政策，这就是

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we talk about Tweedle D and Tweedle Dum
我们谈论 Tweedle D 和 Tweedle Dum

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with regard to the two parties you could
关于两个政党，你可以

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throw in uh the Deep State as being on
把呃深州归为

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the same page as those other two uh
与其他两个呃机构在同一页面上是的，

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institutions yeah there there’s a very
有一个非常

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interesting interview of Putin uh in
有趣的普京呃在 2017 年在 Figuro 的采访，

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figuro in

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2017 and he says uh I’ve dealt with
他说呃我已经处理过

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three presidents now they come into
现在有三位总统，他们

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office with some ideas even but then uh
上任时也有一些想法，但后来呃，

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the men in the dark suits and the blue
那些穿深色西装、打蓝色

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ties and then he said I I wear red ties
领带的人，然后他说我戴红色领带，

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but they wear blue ties they come in and
但他们戴蓝色领带，他们进来

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explain the way the world really is and
解释一下方式 世界确实如此，

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there go the ideas and I think that’s
想法也随之而来，我认为这就是

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Putin’s experience that’s our experience
普京的经验，这是我们的经验，

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that’s my experience which is that
这是我的经验，那就是

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there’s a deeply entrained foreign
有一种根深蒂固的外交

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policy it has been in place in my
政策，它在我的解释中已经存在了

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interpretation for many decades but
几十年，但

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arguably a variant of it has been in
可以说是它的一个变体

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place since
自

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1992 I got to watch some of it early on
1992 年以来，我很早就看到了其中的一些内容，

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because I was an adviser to gorb and I
因为我是 gorb 的顾问，

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was an adviser to yelson and so I saw
也是 yelson 的顾问，所以我看到了

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early makings of this though I didn’t
它的早期制作，尽管我并不

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fully understand it except in retrospect
完全理解它 除了回想起来，

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but that policy has been mostly in place
这项政策

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pretty consistently for 30 years and it
在过去30年里基本上一直在实施，

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didn’t really matter whether it was Bush

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senior whether it was Clinton whether it
无论是老布什、克林顿、

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was Bush Jr whether it was Obama whether
小布什、奥巴马还是

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it was Trump after all who did Trump
特朗普，这并不重要，毕竟是谁干了特朗普

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hire he hired John Bolton well the uh
雇用他雇佣了约翰·博尔顿，嗯，

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pretty deep State uh that was the end of
相当深的状态，嗯，这就是

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they told you know he explained this is
他们告诉你的结局，他解释了事情就是

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the way it is and by the way Bolton
这样，顺便说一句，博尔顿

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explained also in his Memoirs when when
也在他的回忆录中解释说，当

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Trump didn’t agree we figured out ways
特朗普不同意时，我们想出了办法

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to trick him basically so well and what
基本上能很好地欺骗他

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what are their incentives is it war is
他们的动机是什么，是战争，是

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it self-enrichment is it power is it all
自我致富，是权力，这

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three is it some or is it yeah is it is
三个都是，还是有，是

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it just is there a philosophical
不是只是有哲学

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entrenchment or is it just this inertial
根深蒂固，还是只是

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issue that like once a policy begins
像政策一样的惯性问题 开始

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it’s hard to change and the system’s
很难改变，这个系统

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just working with 10,000 people working
只是与 10,000 个人一起努力

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00:07:29,000 –> 00:07:30,720
towards it
实现它，

174
00:07:30,720 –> 00:07:33,240
you know if I were lucky to sit next to
你知道，如果我幸运地坐在

175
00:07:33,240 –> 00:07:35,759
the world’s greatest political
世界上最伟大的政治

176
00:07:35,759 –> 00:07:39,120
philosopher which I am um he’d give you
哲学家旁边，我就是，嗯，他会给你

177
00:07:39,120 –> 00:07:41,479
a good answer which is that the right
一个很好的答案 正确的

178
00:07:41,479 –> 00:07:43,479
answer which is if you want to interpret
答案是，如果你想解释

179
00:07:43,479 –> 00:07:45,599
American foreign policy it is to
美国的外交政策，那就是

180
00:07:45,599 –> 00:07:49,879
maximize power uh and uh he gives a John
权力最大化，呃，他给了约翰

181
00:07:49,879 –> 00:07:52,879
gives a an explanation of that we have
一个解释，我们有

182
00:07:52,879 –> 00:07:55,680
uh some differences but I think it’s a
呃一些分歧，但我认为这是

183
00:07:55,680 –> 00:07:58,159
very good description of American uh
对美国的一个很好的描述，呃

184
00:07:58,159 –> 00:08:00,039
foreign policy which is is that it’s
外交政策是，它

185
00:08:00,039 –> 00:08:03,199
trying to maximize Global power
试图最大化全球权力，

186
00:08:03,199 –> 00:08:07,240
essentially to be Global hegemon I I
本质上是成为全球霸主，我

187
00:08:07,240 –> 00:08:09,840
think it could get us all killed this is
认为这可能会让我们所有人都被杀，这是

188
00:08:09,840 –> 00:08:11,479
because it’s a little bit delusional in
因为这在

189
00:08:11,479 –> 00:08:15,240
my mind but uh not not the I not not his
我看来有点妄想，但呃不是我不是他对

190
00:08:15,240 –> 00:08:17,360
interpretation of their idea but the
他们想法的解释，而是

191
00:08:17,360 –> 00:08:18,879
fact that they hold that idea is a
事实 他们持有这个想法

192
00:08:18,879 –> 00:08:21,280
little weird to me but in any event
对我来说有点奇怪，但无论如何，

193
00:08:21,280 –> 00:08:24,280
that’s the idea and every time a
这就是这个想法，每次做出

194
00:08:24,280 –> 00:08:27,960
decision comes inside that I’ve seen I’m
决定时，我都看到我是

195
00:08:27,960 –> 00:08:30,199
an economist so I don’t see security
一名经济学家，所以我不会以

196
00:08:30,199 –> 00:08:32,320
decisions the same way but every
同样的方式看待安全决策，但每一个

197
00:08:32,320 –> 00:08:34,880
decision that I’ve seen always leans in
决定都是 我看到

198
00:08:34,880 –> 00:08:38,120
the same direction for the last 30 years
过去30年总是朝着同一个方向倾斜，

199
00:08:38,120 –> 00:08:42,080
which is power as the central objective
即以权力为中心目标，

200
00:08:42,080 –> 00:08:45,680
so Clinton faced an internal
所以克林顿面临着一场内部

201
00:08:45,680 –> 00:08:49,680
cabinate really debate should NATO be
内阁辩论，北约是否应该

202
00:08:49,680 –> 00:08:52,200
enlarged is this this is a post Cold War
扩大，这是冷战后的

203
00:08:52,200 –> 00:08:54,680
phenomenon that it’s well I’ll I’ll let
现象，这很好，我会的 让

204
00:08:54,680 –> 00:08:57,000
John take that just two very quick
约翰拿走那两个 非常简短的

205
00:08:57,000 –> 00:08:59,040
points first of all I do believe that
观点首先，我确实相信

206
00:08:59,040 –> 00:09:01,880
the people people who uh are in favor of
那些支持

207
00:09:01,880 –> 00:09:06,279
this foreign policy uh do believe in it
这项外交政策的人确实相信它，

208
00:09:06,279 –> 00:09:08,680
it’s not cynical they really believe
这并不愤世嫉俗，他们真的相信

209
00:09:08,680 –> 00:09:10,240
that we’re doing the right thing I’ve
我们正在做正确的事情，我

210
00:09:10,240 –> 00:09:12,360
met them yeah no yeah the second point I
见过他们是的，不，是的 我

211
00:09:12,360 –> 00:09:14,040
would make to you and this sort of adds
要向你提出的第二点是

212
00:09:14,040 –> 00:09:16,760
on to what Jeff said Jeff said power has
对杰夫所说的补充，杰夫说权力

213
00:09:16,760 –> 00:09:18,399
a lot to do with this and is a good
与此有很大关系，他是一个很好的

214
00:09:18,399 –> 00:09:20,519
realist I of course believe that but
现实主义者，我当然相信这一点，但

215
00:09:20,519 –> 00:09:22,160
it’s also very important to understand
了解美国是一个非常重要的点

216
00:09:22,160 –> 00:09:23,399
that the United States is a

217
00:09:23,399 –> 00:09:25,839
fundamentally liberal country and we
基本上是自由的国家，我们

218
00:09:25,839 –> 00:09:28,360
believe that we have a right we have a
相信我们 我们有权利，我们有

219
00:09:28,360 –> 00:09:30,880
responsibility and we have the power to
责任，我们有能力

220
00:09:30,880 –> 00:09:33,680
run around the world and remake the
环游世界，按照

221
00:09:33,680 –> 00:09:36,399
world in America’s image most people in
美国的形象重塑世界。外交政策制定者中的大多数人，

222
00:09:36,399 –> 00:09:38,079
the foreign policy establishment the

223
00:09:38,079 –> 00:09:40,200
Republican Party the Democratic party
共和党，民主党，

224
00:09:40,200 –> 00:09:42,680
they believe that and that is what has
他们相信，这就是

225
00:09:42,680 –> 00:09:45,519
motivated our foreign policy in large
我们外交政策的动力

226
00:09:45,519 –> 00:09:48,360
part since the Cold War ended because
很大程度上是自冷战结束以来，因为

227
00:09:48,360 –> 00:09:50,519
remember when the cold war ends we have
请记住，当冷战结束时，我们将

228
00:09:50,519 –> 00:09:53,760
no rival great power left so what are we
不再有竞争对手的强大力量，所以我们将如何

229
00:09:53,760 –> 00:09:55,320
going to do with all this power that we
利用我们拥有的所有这些力量，

230
00:09:55,320 –> 00:09:58,519
have what we decide to do is go out and
我们决定做的是走出去，

231
00:09:58,519 –> 00:10:01,640
remake the world in our own image so
用我们自己的方式重塑世界 图像所以

232
00:10:01,640 –> 00:10:03,399
that’s a that’s a values point of view
这是一个价值观的观点

233
00:10:03,399 –> 00:10:05,320
though right that there are values that
尽管

234
00:10:05,320 –> 00:10:07,640
they hold dear that that many do hold
他们所珍视的价值观是正确的，许多人确实珍视

235
00:10:07,640 –> 00:10:09,240
dear that

236
00:10:09,240 –> 00:10:12,399
liberalism democracy does ultimately I
自由主义民主最终确实如此，但我

237
00:10:12,399 –> 00:10:14,120
believe I’ve heard this reduce conflict
相信我听说这可以减少

238
00:10:14,120 –> 00:10:15,640
worldwide that there’s an importance
世界范围内的冲突，这是自二战以来

239
00:10:15,640 –> 00:10:18,519
that we’ve never seen two democratic
我们从未见过的两个民主

240
00:10:18,519 –> 00:10:22,160
nations since World War II go to war and
国家的重要性 战争，

241
00:10:22,160 –> 00:10:24,959
that there’s a reason why we want to see
我们希望看到

242
00:10:24,959 –> 00:10:28,120
liberalism kind of breed throughout the
自由主义在世界各地滋生是有原因的，

243
00:10:28,120 –> 00:10:30,120
world and it’s our responsib ability for
这是我们对

244
00:10:30,120 –> 00:10:31,880
world for Global Peace to make that a
全球和平世界的责任能力，

245
00:10:31,880 –> 00:10:34,279
mandate let me step in for one moment
让我介入一会儿，

246
00:10:34,279 –> 00:10:36,360
okay sure very quickly and by the way
好吧，当然很快，顺便说一句，

247
00:10:36,360 –> 00:10:39,000
I’m I’m I’m I’m I’m uh what do you call
我’ 我是我是 我是，呃，你怎么称呼

248
00:10:39,000 –> 00:10:40,680
it where you pull the spirits of the the
它，你拉动了

249
00:10:40,680 –> 00:10:42,240
voice of others but I’m I’m just trying
他人声音的精神，但我是，我只是

250
00:10:42,240 –> 00:10:44,160
to channeling channeling that’s the word
想通灵，通灵，这就是

251
00:10:44,160 –> 00:10:46,959
I want to be very clear I am forever
我想非常清楚的词，我永远

252
00:10:46,959 –> 00:10:48,720
thankful that I was born in a liberal
感激我 我出生在自由

253
00:10:48,720 –> 00:10:51,440
democracy and I love liberalism but the
民主国家，我热爱自由主义，但

254
00:10:51,440 –> 00:10:53,760
question here is do you think that we
问题是你认为我们

255
00:10:53,760 –> 00:10:57,120
can run around the world imposing
可以在世界各地将

256
00:10:57,120 –> 00:10:59,440
liberal democracy on other countries and
自由民主强加于其他国家，并且在

257
00:10:59,440 –> 00:11:01,920
some cases shoving it down their throat
某些情况下将其强加到他们的喉咙上，用

258
00:11:01,920 –> 00:11:04,399
doing it at the end of a rifle barrel
步枪枪管末端这样做吗？

259
00:11:04,399 –> 00:11:06,519
and my argument is that’s almost
争论是这几乎是

260
00:11:06,519 –> 00:11:08,600
impossible to do it almost always
不可能的 这样做几乎总是

261
00:11:08,600 –> 00:11:11,040
backfires think Iraq Afghanistan so
适得其反，想想伊拉克、阿富汗

262
00:11:11,040 –> 00:11:14,000
forth and so on and secondly you begin
等等，其次，你开始

263
00:11:14,000 –> 00:11:17,079
to erode liberalism in the United States
侵蚀美国的自由主义，

264
00:11:17,079 –> 00:11:19,880
because you build a deep state right and
因为你建立了深厚的国家权利，

265
00:11:19,880 –> 00:11:21,519
you want to understand that a lot of the
你想了解

266
00:11:21,519 –> 00:11:24,079
complaints here about cracking down on
这里有很多关于镇压

267
00:11:24,079 –> 00:11:26,560
freedom of speech and so forth and so on
自由的抱怨。 演讲等等都与

268
00:11:26,560 –> 00:11:28,320
are related to the fact that we have
我们有

269
00:11:28,320 –> 00:11:31,000
this ambitious foreign policy those two
雄心勃勃的外交政策这一事实有关，这两

270
00:11:31,000 –> 00:11:32,959
things go together in very important
件事以非常重要的方式结合在一起，

271
00:11:32,959 –> 00:11:36,000
ways what an let me let me disagree just
让我让我有点不同意，

272
00:11:36,000 –> 00:11:39,480
a bit uh because we agree actually on
呃，因为我们实际上在行为上达成了一致

273
00:11:39,480 –> 00:11:42,240
the behavior and I’ve learned I’d say
，我已经 我知道我会

274
00:11:42,240 –> 00:11:45,120
most of that from you that it’s power
从你那里说大部分

275
00:11:45,120 –> 00:11:50,040
seeking truly John in my work 40 years
约翰在我的工作中真正追求权力40年

276
00:11:50,040 –> 00:11:52,639
uh overseas I don’t think the US
呃海外我不认为美国

277
00:11:52,639 –> 00:11:54,160
government gives a damn about these
政府关心这些

278
00:11:54,160 –> 00:11:56,360
other places I I don’t think they really
其他地方我不认为他们真的

279
00:11:56,360 –> 00:11:58,360
care if it’s a liberal democracy if it’s
关心这是一个自由民主国家还是

280
00:11:58,360 –> 00:12:00,200
a dictatorship they want the right of
一个独裁国家他们想要的权利

281
00:12:00,200 –> 00:12:03,079
ways they want the military bases they
他们想要军事基地的方式，他们

282
00:12:03,079 –> 00:12:06,240
want uh the state to be in support of
想要呃国家支持

283
00:12:06,240 –> 00:12:08,200
the United States they want NATO
美国，他们想要北约

284
00:12:08,200 –> 00:12:10,800
enlargement I don’t I know You’ you’ve
东扩，我不知道，我知道你

285
00:12:10,800 –> 00:12:13,639
written and there are some who believe
写的，有些人相信

286
00:12:13,639 –> 00:12:15,000
in stateb
国家

287
00:12:15,000 –> 00:12:17,880
building God if they do they are so
如果这样做的话就会建立上帝 太

288
00:12:17,880 –> 00:12:20,320
incompetent it’s
无能了，令人

289
00:12:20,320 –> 00:12:23,000
unbelievable
难以置信，

290
00:12:23,000 –> 00:12:25,560
but Professor s know I I’ll give you an
但教授知道我，

291
00:12:25,560 –> 00:12:27,800
example if I put just one one
如果我只举一个

292
00:12:27,800 –> 00:12:31,480
example I’m I’m a friend with one of the
例子，我会给你举一个例子，我是我的朋友，我是美国学术界

293
00:12:31,480 –> 00:12:32,720
only
唯一一位

294
00:12:32,720 –> 00:12:36,360
PhD Afghani Economist senior person in
阿富汗经济学家高级博士生之一。

295
00:12:36,360 –> 00:12:41,000
the US um Academia over the last 30
30

296
00:12:41,000 –> 00:12:43,959
years you would think that the state
年来，你会认为

297
00:12:43,959 –> 00:12:45,680
department if they were interested in
国务院如果对

298
00:12:45,680 –> 00:12:49,320
State Building would ask him one day one
国家大厦感兴趣，有一天会问他，

299
00:12:49,320 –> 00:12:52,399
moment something about Afghanistan never
关于阿富汗的事情从来没有

300
00:12:52,399 –> 00:12:54,519
happened never happened not even one
发生过，从来没有发生过，甚至一个

301
00:12:54,519 –> 00:12:57,279
question never happened he asked me can
问题都没有发生过，他问我

302
00:12:57,279 –> 00:12:59,360
you get me a a meeting with the
你能让我和国务院会面吗？

303
00:12:59,360 –> 00:13:01,560
department they were completely
我们完全

304
00:13:01,560 –> 00:13:05,320
uninterested this is this is about power
不感兴趣，这是关于权力的，

305
00:13:05,320 –> 00:13:08,360
you’re too idealistic
你太理想主义了，

306
00:13:08,360 –> 00:13:11,079
John they don’t care about the other
约翰，他们不关心其他

307
00:13:11,079 –> 00:13:14,839
places they may feel we should be
地方，他们可能觉得我们应该成为

308
00:13:14,839 –> 00:13:17,639
whatever we want free and so forth but
任何我们想要的自由等等，但

309
00:13:17,639 –> 00:13:20,519
Freedom I’ve been I’ve seen my with my
我一直在自由，我已经看到了我的

310
00:13:20,519 –> 00:13:23,360
own eyes the coups the overthrows the
亲眼所见，政变，推翻

311
00:13:23,360 –> 00:13:25,880
presidents democratic presidents LED
总统，民主总统，被

312
00:13:25,880 –> 00:13:28,639
away they don’t care at all this is
带走，他们根本不在乎，这是

313
00:13:28,639 –> 00:13:29,959
Washington
华盛顿，

314
00:13:29,959 –> 00:13:34,160
be a realist come on Professor mimer
是一个现实主义者，来吧，米默教授，

Should America leverage its power against dictators?

315
00:13:34,160 –> 00:13:37,639
I when we talk about power um there are
当我们谈论权力时，

316
00:13:37,639 –> 00:13:39,480
other people in the world who are trying
世界上还有其他人试图

317
00:13:39,480 –> 00:13:41,079
to accumulate power we live in a
积累权力，我们 生活在

318
00:13:41,079 –> 00:13:43,320
multi-polar world right now and they
多极世界 现在，他们

319
00:13:43,320 –> 00:13:46,360
have in some cases very nefarious or bad
在某些情况下有非常邪恶或恶意的

320
00:13:46,360 –> 00:13:49,000
intent um and they do not have democracy
意图，嗯，他们没有民主，

321
00:13:49,000 –> 00:13:51,920
so it’s one thing to you know tell uh
所以这是一回事，告诉

322
00:13:51,920 –> 00:13:54,880
people in Afghanistan you need to evolve
阿富汗人民，你需要发展，

323
00:13:54,880 –> 00:13:56,680
you know to be a perfect democracy like
你知道要成为像我们这里一样的完美民主国家

324
00:13:56,680 –> 00:13:58,279
the one we have here I think we all
我想我们都

325
00:13:58,279 –> 00:14:01,440
agree that’s unrealistic and insane um
同意这是不现实的、疯狂的，

326
00:14:01,440 –> 00:14:04,040
and not practical but what about the
也不切实际，但是

327
00:14:04,040 –> 00:14:06,079
free countries of the world uniting
世界上的自由国家

328
00:14:06,079 –> 00:14:08,480
together to stop dictators from invading
联合起来阻止独裁者入侵

329
00:14:08,480 –> 00:14:10,720
other free countries is that Noble is
其他自由国家呢？高尚的是

330
00:14:10,720 –> 00:14:12,839
that a good use of power and a good
权力的良好运用和

331
00:14:12,839 –> 00:14:16,440
framework for America to evolve too no I
美国发展的良好框架 太不，我

332
00:14:16,440 –> 00:14:19,600
don’t think so uh I think that what the
不这么认为呃我认为

333
00:14:19,600 –> 00:14:21,680
United States should do is worry about
美国应该做的是担心

334
00:14:21,680 –> 00:14:24,240
its own National interest uh in some
自己的国家利益呃在某些

335
00:14:24,240 –> 00:14:26,560
cases that’s going to involve aligning
情况下这将涉及到

336
00:14:26,560 –> 00:14:29,759
ourselves with a dictator uh if we’re
与独裁者结盟呃如果我们

337
00:14:29,759 –> 00:14:31,720
fighting World War II all over again
再次进行第二次世界大战

338
00:14:31,720 –> 00:14:33,360
it’s December 8th
现在是 1941 年 12 月 8 日，

339
00:14:33,360 –> 00:14:36,040
1941 you surely would be in favor of
你肯定会赞成

340
00:14:36,040 –> 00:14:38,320
allying with adol not with Adolf Hitler
与阿道夫·希特勒结盟，而不是与阿道夫·希特勒、

341
00:14:38,320 –> 00:14:41,120
with Joseph Stalin and the Soviet Union
约瑟夫·斯大林和苏联结盟，

342
00:14:41,120 –> 00:14:44,279
against uh Adolf Hitler and Nazi Germany
反对呃阿道夫·希特勒和纳粹德国，

343
00:14:44,279 –> 00:14:46,079
sometimes you have to make those kind of
有时你必须做出这些

344
00:14:46,079 –> 00:14:48,399
compromises uh as I said before I love
妥协 呃，正如我之前说过的，我热爱

345
00:14:48,399 –> 00:14:50,360
liberal democracy I have no problem
自由民主，我

346
00:14:50,360 –> 00:14:52,800
align with liberal democracy but when
对自由民主的看法没有问题，但是当

347
00:14:52,800 –> 00:14:54,440
you begin to think in the terms that
你开始用

348
00:14:54,440 –> 00:14:57,920
you’re thinking you end up uh with an
你认为的术语思考时，你最终会产生一种

349
00:14:57,920 –> 00:15:00,199
Impulse to do social engineering around
在世界各地进行社会工程的冲动，

350
00:15:00,199 –> 00:15:01,959
the world and that gets you in all sorts
这会让你参与其中 各种各样

351
00:15:01,959 –> 00:15:04,759
of problems well what I’m proposing is
的问题，我的建议是，

352
00:15:04,759 –> 00:15:07,199
when dictatorships invade other
当独裁政权入侵其他

353
00:15:07,199 –> 00:15:09,399
countries then we take action it depends
国家时，我们会采取行动，这取决于

354
00:15:09,399 –> 00:15:11,560
maybe def defend them so it depends yeah
可能保卫他们，所以这取决于，是的，

355
00:15:11,560 –> 00:15:15,160
of course I mean when Russia invades
当然，我的意思是，当俄罗斯入侵

356
00:15:15,160 –> 00:15:17,600
Ukraine basically what you’re saying is
乌克兰时，基本上你所说的是

357
00:15:17,600 –> 00:15:20,880
you want to go to war on behalf of
你想去 代表

358
00:15:20,880 –> 00:15:23,000
Ukraine against Russia are you in favor
乌克兰对俄罗斯发动战争 你是否赞成

359
00:15:23,000 –> 00:15:25,399
of that no I would say diplomacy would
这一点？不，我想说，外交

360
00:15:25,399 –> 00:15:27,040
obviously be what we’d want to exhaust
显然是我们想要用尽的办法，

China, Russia and America

361
00:15:27,040 –> 00:15:29,199
but if they do roll into other fre
但如果它们确实进入其他自由

362
00:15:29,199 –> 00:15:30,560
countries I think there’s an argument
国家，我认为

363
00:15:30,560 –> 00:15:31,880
for the free countries of the world to
世界上的自由国家有理由

364
00:15:31,880 –> 00:15:33,720
get together and say two dictators we’re
聚集在一起，说我们两个独裁者 “我

365
00:15:33,720 –> 00:15:36,040
not going to allow
不会允许

366
00:15:36,040 –> 00:15:39,240
this could I come in
这种情况发生，我可以

367
00:15:39,240 –> 00:15:43,440
here could I clarify a few
进来吗？我可以澄清一些

368
00:15:45,040 –> 00:15:49,959
things look uh first of all
事情吗？首先，

369
00:15:49,959 –> 00:15:53,639
um almost all the time that we intervene
嗯，我们干预的几乎所有时间都是

370
00:15:53,639 –> 00:15:57,800
it’s because uh we view this as a power
因为呃，我们认为这是

371
00:15:57,800 –> 00:16:00,839
situation for the us so whether it’s
美国的权力状况，所以无论是

372
00:16:00,839 –> 00:16:04,720
Ukraine or Syria or Libya or other
乌克兰还是叙利亚 或利比亚或 其他

373
00:16:04,720 –> 00:16:09,279
places even if we Define it as defending
地方，即使我们将其定义为捍卫某些

374
00:16:09,279 –> 00:16:11,720
something believe me it’s not about
东西，相信我，这不是

375
00:16:11,720 –> 00:16:13,399

defending something it’s about a
捍卫某些东西，而是关于

376
00:16:13,399 –> 00:16:16,600
perception of us power and US interest
美国力量和美国利益的看法，

377
00:16:16,600 –> 00:16:21,120
and it’s in objectives of us Global
它是美国全球霸权的目标，

378
00:16:21,120 –> 00:16:24,560
hegemony and if we analyze the Ukraine
如果我们分析乌克兰

379
00:16:24,560 –> 00:16:27,480
conflict uh just even a little bit below
冲突，呃，甚至比我们的目标低一点点

380
00:16:27,480 –> 00:16:29,560
the surface this is not a a conflict
表面上这不是一场

381
00:16:29,560 –> 00:16:32,240
about Putin invading Ukraine this is
关于普京入侵乌克兰的冲突，这是一个

382
00:16:32,240 –> 00:16:34,600
something a lot different that has to do
非常不同的事情，

383
00:16:34,600 –> 00:16:37,440
with American power projection into the
与美国

384
00:16:37,440 –> 00:16:39,839
former Soviet Union so it’s completely
向前苏联的力量投射有关，所以

385
00:16:39,839 –> 00:16:45,319
different second if we decide were the
如果我们决定是警察的话，那就完全不同了，

386
00:16:45,319 –> 00:16:47,759
police which we

387
00:16:47,759 –> 00:16:52,000
do you can’t imagine how cynical
你无法想象如何

388
00:16:52,000 –> 00:16:56,759
we use to justify our actions
我们用愤世嫉俗的废话来为我们的行动辩护

389
00:16:56,759 –> 00:16:59,560
we used the cynical B that
我们用愤世嫉俗的B废话说我们

390
00:16:59,560 –> 00:17:02,639
we’re defending the people of Benghazi
正在保卫班加西人民

391
00:17:02,639 –> 00:17:05,240
to bomb the hell out of Libya to kill
轰炸利比亚以杀死

392
00:17:05,240 –> 00:17:08,919
moamar Gaddafi why did we do that well
卡扎菲 为什么我们做得这么好

393
00:17:08,919 –> 00:17:11,039
I’m kind of an expert on that region and
我是该地区的专家

394
00:17:11,039 –> 00:17:13,799
I can tell you maybe because sarosi
我可以告诉你，也许因为萨罗西

395
00:17:13,799 –> 00:17:16,839
didn’t like Gaddafi there’s no much
不喜欢卡扎菲，

396
00:17:16,839 –> 00:17:19,280
deeper reason except Hillary liked every
除了希拉里喜欢她能得到的每一次爆炸事件之外，没有什么更深层次的原因，

397
00:17:19,280 –> 00:17:21,799
bombing she could get her hands on and
而

398
00:17:21,799 –> 00:17:24,119
Obama was kind of convinced my secretary
奥巴马有点相信我的

399
00:17:24,119 –> 00:17:26,039
of state says go with it so why don’t we
国务卿所说的去吧 那么我们为什么不

400
00:17:26,039 –> 00:17:28,240
go with the NATO Expedition it had
加入北约远征军呢？它

401
00:17:28,240 –> 00:17:30,919
nothing to do with Libya it un it
与利比亚没有任何关系。它

402
00:17:30,919 –> 00:17:34,640
Unleashed 15 years of chaos cheated the
释放了15年的混乱，欺骗了

403
00:17:34,640 –> 00:17:36,640
UN Security Council because like
联合国安理会，因为就像

404
00:17:36,640 –> 00:17:38,400
everything else we’ve done it was on
我们所做的其他一切一样，这都是

405
00:17:38,400 –> 00:17:40,760
false pretenses we did the same with
虚假的借口，我们对利比亚也做了同样的事情。

406
00:17:40,760 –> 00:17:43,360
trying to overthrow Syria we did the

407
00:17:43,360 –> 00:17:46,360
same with conspiring to overthrow Victor

408
00:17:46,360 –> 00:17:50,440
yanukovich in Ukraine in February 2014
2014 年 2 月，我们在试图推翻叙利亚时也做了同样的事情，密谋推翻了乌克兰的维克多·亚努科维奇，

409
00:17:50,440 –> 00:17:53,080
so the problem with this argument is
所以这个论点的问题是

410
00:17:53,080 –> 00:17:55,720
we’re not nice guys we’re not trying to
我们不是好人，我们不是在试图

411
00:17:55,720 –> 00:17:57,600
save the world we’re not trying to make
拯救我们正在做的世界。 我们不是想建立

412
00:17:57,600 –> 00:17:59,320
democracies
民主国家，

413
00:17:59,320 –> 00:18:02,280
we had a committee by the way of all the
我们有一个由

414
00:18:02,280 –> 00:18:04,640
luminaries you could mention but they’re
你可以提到的所有名人组成的委员会，但他们是

415
00:18:04,640 –> 00:18:06,480
The neocon Crazies but they’re
新保守派的疯子，但他们是

416
00:18:06,480 –> 00:18:08,840
luminaries the committee for the people

417
00:18:08,840 –> 00:18:09,960
of

418
00:18:09,960 –> 00:18:13,760
Cheta are you kidding do you think they
切塔人民委员会的名人，你开玩笑吧，你认为他们

419
00:18:13,760 –> 00:18:16,240
even knew where chn is or cared about
甚至知道 chn 在哪里吗？ 或者关心

420
00:18:16,240 –> 00:18:19,320
Chia but it was an opportunity to get at
Chia，但这是一个进入

421
00:18:19,320 –> 00:18:21,640
Russia to weaken Russia to support a
俄罗斯的机会，削弱俄罗斯，支持

422
00:18:21,640 –> 00:18:24,320
jihadist movement inside Russia to do
俄罗斯境内的圣战运动，

423
00:18:24,320 –> 00:18:26,919
this is a game but it’s the game that
这是一场游戏，但

424
00:18:26,919 –> 00:18:29,039
John has described better than any one
约翰比世界上任何一个游戏都描述得更好，

425
00:18:29,039 –> 00:18:32,000
in the world it’s a game of power it’s
这是一场游戏 权力游戏，

426
00:18:32,000 –> 00:18:33,919
not that we’re defending real things if
我们并不是在捍卫真实的事物，如果

427
00:18:33,919 –> 00:18:36,760
you want to defend real things go to the
你想捍卫真实的事物，就去

428
00:18:36,760 –> 00:18:39,120
UN Security Council and convince others
联合国安理会并说服其他国家，

429
00:18:39,120 –> 00:18:40,760
because the other countries are not
因为其他国家并不

430
00:18:40,760 –> 00:18:43,360
crazy and they don’t want Mayhem in the
疯狂，他们不希望世界出现混乱，

431
00:18:43,360 –> 00:18:46,320
world but we play game so they say
但我们玩游戏，所以 他们说

432
00:18:46,320 –> 00:18:49,000
that’s a game Iraq which was obviously a
那是一场伊拉克比赛，显然是

433
00:18:49,000 –> 00:18:51,559
game before we went in it was a
我们参加之前的一场比赛，显然那天是一场比赛，

434
00:18:51,559 –> 00:18:53,360
obviously Co and Powell could not move
鲍威尔在

435
00:18:53,360 –> 00:18:56,360
his lips without lying that day
不撒谎的情况下就无法移动他的嘴唇，

436
00:18:56,360 –> 00:18:59,159
obviously and so they said no but if
所以他们说不，但如果

437
00:18:59,159 –> 00:19:01,440
we’re real about our interests then you
我们真正关心我们的利益，那么你

438
00:19:01,440 –> 00:19:03,320
go to the UN Security Council and then
就去 联合国安理会，然后

439
00:19:03,320 –> 00:19:06,080
it’s not just on us it’s actually then a
这不仅仅是 对我们来说，这实际上是一个

440
00:19:06,080 –> 00:19:08,919
collective security issue uh Professor M
集体安全问题呃M教授

441
00:19:08,919 –> 00:19:11,039
if we were to take Jeffrey’s position
如果我们采取杰弗里的立场的话

442
00:19:11,039 –> 00:19:13,640
here um that we are exerting power for
我们正在施加权力是

443
00:19:13,640 –> 00:19:16,480
the sake of you know our reputation and
为了你知道我们的声誉，

444
00:19:16,480 –> 00:19:18,480
in fact to weaken dictatorships if I’m
事实上是为了削弱独裁统治如果我是的话

445
00:19:18,480 –> 00:19:21,640
if I’m summarizing correctly here um is
如果我总结正确的话 嗯，

446
00:19:21,640 –> 00:19:23,720
that not a good strategy to weaken
这不是一个削弱

447
00:19:23,720 –> 00:19:25,520
dictators around the world who might
世界各地可能

448
00:19:25,520 –> 00:19:27,880
like to invade other countries is there
想要入侵其他国家的独裁者的好策略，是否

449
00:19:27,880 –> 00:19:29,600
is there a frame Fring in which you
有一个框架Fring，在其中你

450
00:19:29,600 –> 00:19:33,400
could see that being um for you know a
可以看到，嗯，因为你知道一个

451
00:19:33,400 –> 00:19:36,000
world where democracy and people living
民主和人民自由生活的世界

452
00:19:36,000 –> 00:19:39,120
freely has gone down in our lifetimes is
已经消失了 在我们有生之年，

453
00:19:39,120 –> 00:19:41,240
that not knowable is there not a
不知道是否

454
00:19:41,240 –> 00:19:42,559
justification somebody could make for
有人可以为之辩解，

455
00:19:42,559 –> 00:19:43,880
I’m not saying I have that but I’m just
我并不是说我有这个，但我只是

456
00:19:43,880 –> 00:19:45,320
trying to steal me on the other side of
想偷走我的另一面，

457
00:19:45,320 –> 00:19:48,520
this is weakening dictators and despots
这正在削弱独裁者和暴君，这是

458
00:19:48,520 –> 00:19:51,720
a good strategy it depends uh well let’s
一个好的策略，这取决于 呃，让我们

459
00:19:51,720 –> 00:19:53,760
talk about the the two that we have you
谈谈我们所

460
00:19:53,760 –> 00:19:56,200
know uh Xi Jinping I think you wanted to
知道的两个人，呃，习近平，我认为你

461
00:19:56,200 –> 00:19:58,240
get to eventually and then Ukraine and
最终想要接触到乌克兰和

462
00:19:58,240 –> 00:20:02,080
Putin are these people worth trying to
普京，这些人值得尝试，

463
00:20:02,080 –> 00:20:04,919
you know uh contain or even weaken well
你知道，呃，在中国方面，我想很好地遏制甚至削弱我

464
00:20:04,919 –> 00:20:07,799
in in terms of China I’m fully in favor
。 我完全赞成

465
00:20:07,799 –> 00:20:10,360
of containing China okay so containment
遏制中国好吧，遏制

466
00:20:10,360 –> 00:20:12,280
check it’s containment I’m not
检查就是遏制，我

467
00:20:12,280 –> 00:20:14,919
interested in regime change I’m not
对政权更迭不感兴趣，我

468
00:20:14,919 –> 00:20:17,640
interested in trying to turn China into
对试图将中国变成

469
00:20:17,640 –> 00:20:19,600
a democracy not going to happen yeah not
民主国家不感兴趣，这不会发生，是的，不会

470
00:20:19,600 –> 00:20:21,880
going to happen we tried it actually and
发生，我们实际上尝试过，

471
00:20:21,880 –> 00:20:23,919
I thought it was foolish to even pursue
我认为这样做是愚蠢的 甚至在俄罗斯方面

472
00:20:23,919 –> 00:20:26,240
a policy of Engagement toward China with
奉行与中国接触的政策

473
00:20:26,240 –> 00:20:28,360
regard to Russia I don’t think Russia is
我不认为俄罗斯

474
00:20:28,360 –> 00:20:30,640
a serious threat to the United States
对美国构成严重威胁

475
00:20:30,640 –> 00:20:32,640
and indeed I think the United States
事实上我认为美国

476
00:20:32,640 –> 00:20:35,000
should have good relations with Putin
应该与普京保持良好关系

477
00:20:35,000 –> 00:20:38,520
it’s a remarkably foolish policy to push
将他推入怀抱是一个非常愚蠢的政策

478
00:20:38,520 –> 00:20:40,960
him into the arms of the Chinese there
中国人中

479
00:20:40,960 –> 00:20:43,120
are three great powers in the system the
有三个 体系中的大

480
00:20:43,120 –> 00:20:45,960
United States China and Russia China is
国 美国、中国和俄罗斯 中国是

481
00:20:45,960 –> 00:20:48,039
a peer competitor to the United States
美国的同等竞争对手，

482
00:20:48,039 –> 00:20:49,720
it’s the most serious threat to the
它对美国构成最严重的威胁

483
00:20:49,720 –> 00:20:52,000
United States Russia is the weakest of
俄罗斯是

484
00:20:52,000 –> 00:20:54,039
those three great powers and it’s not a
这三个大国中最弱的一个，

485
00:20:54,039 –> 00:20:56,840
serious threat to us if you are playing
如果你在玩的话，它对我们来说不是一个严重的威胁

486
00:20:56,840 –> 00:20:58,760
balance and power politics and you’re
平衡和强权政治，

487
00:20:58,760 –> 00:21:00,760
interested as the United States in
作为美国，你有兴趣

488
00:21:00,760 –> 00:21:03,640
containing China you want Russia on your
遏制中国，你希望俄罗斯站在你这

489
00:21:03,640 –> 00:21:06,159
side of the Ledger but what we have done
一边，但我们实际上所做的

490
00:21:06,159 –> 00:21:09,320
in effect is we have pushed Russia into
是，我们把俄罗斯推入了

491
00:21:09,320 –> 00:21:11,279
the arms of the Chinese this is a
中国人的怀抱，这是一项

492
00:21:11,279 –> 00:21:13,120
remarkably foolish policy and
非常愚蠢的政策，

493
00:21:13,120 –> 00:21:15,200
furthermore by getting bogged down in
此外通过得到 陷入

494
00:21:15,200 –> 00:21:17,679
Ukraine and now bogged down in the
乌克兰困境，现在又陷入

495
00:21:17,679 –> 00:21:20,720
Middle East it’s become very difficult
中东困境，

496
00:21:20,720 –> 00:21:23,039
for us to Pivot to Asia to deal with
我们很难转向亚洲来应对

497
00:21:23,039 –> 00:21:25,440
China which is the principal threat that
中国，这是我们面临的主要威胁

498
00:21:25,440 –> 00:21:27,380
we face

499
00:21:27,380 –> 00:21:31,840
[Applause]
[掌声]

500
00:21:31,840 –> 00:21:33,520
can I
我

501
00:21:33,520 –> 00:21:37,200
think David could I just say uh 2/3
想大卫我可以说呃2/3

502
00:21:37,200 –> 00:21:38,240
right
对吗

503
00:21:38,240 –> 00:21:42,600
perfect so you gave him a b or B plus a
完美，所以你给他一个 b 或 B 加一个

504
00:21:42,600 –> 00:21:44,840
minus I always give him an A minus
减 我总是给他一个 A 减去

The China threat: avoiding escalatory to nuclear war

505
00:21:44,840 –> 00:21:46,840
inflation I just wanted to add a
通货膨胀 我只是想添加一个

506
00:21:46,840 –> 00:21:48,799
footnote which is that China’s also not
脚注，中国也不是

507
00:21:48,799 –> 00:21:49,520
a

508
00:21:49,520 –> 00:21:52,480
threat it’s just not a threat I mean
威胁，它只是不是威胁 我的意思是

509
00:21:52,480 –> 00:21:54,320
we’re going to get to it ch ch China
我们会解决这个问题 ch ch 中国

510
00:21:54,320 –> 00:21:57,400
China’s a market it’s uh got great food
中国是一个市场，它有很棒的食物，

511
00:21:57,400 –> 00:22:00,400
great culture uh wonderful people a
很棒的文化，很棒的人民，

512
00:22:00,400 –> 00:22:02,760
civilization 10 times older than ours
比我们古老十倍的

513
00:22:02,760 –> 00:22:04,400
it’s not a threat well as an economist

514
00:22:04,400 –> 00:22:08,240
can you talk about the impact of a cold

515
00:22:08,240 –> 00:22:10,520
or hot conflict with China from an

516
00:22:10,520 –> 00:22:11,880
economic perspective given the trade
文明，这不是一个威胁，作为一个经济学家，你能从经济角度谈谈与中国的冷热冲突的影响吗？ 贸易

517
00:22:11,880 –> 00:22:13,240
relationship yeah it would wreck
关系是的，它会破坏

518
00:22:13,240 –> 00:22:15,279
California for one thing it would
加州，它会

519
00:22:15,279 –> 00:22:17,039
destroy the economy that you guys are

520
00:22:17,039 –> 00:22:19,840
making completely this economy has been
彻底摧毁你们正在创造的经济，这个经济可能是

521
00:22:19,840 –> 00:22:22,000
the biggest beneficiary of China’s rise
中国崛起的最大受益者，

522
00:22:22,000 –> 00:22:24,600
probably in the whole world so it’s
可能是全世界的，所以

523
00:22:24,600 –> 00:22:27,520
crazy maybe if you’re worried if you’re
如果你是的话，这可能是疯狂的 担心如果你

524
00:22:27,520 –> 00:22:30,000
really worried about about whether uh a
真的担心

525
00:22:30,000 –> 00:22:32,919
worker in Ohio has a particular job on a
俄亥俄州的一名工人是否在特定的装配线上从事特定的工作

526
00:22:32,919 –> 00:22:35,520
particular assembly line then uh you can
那么你可能

527
00:22:35,520 –> 00:22:37,919
be anti-china if you’re worried about
会反华如果你担心

528
00:22:37,919 –> 00:22:40,640
the tech industry about California about
科技行业关于加州的

529
00:22:40,640 –> 00:22:42,200
peace and the future you should be
和平和未来你应该

530
00:22:42,200 –> 00:22:44,480
pro-china that’s all so why is it become
亲中国，这就是为什么人们

531
00:22:44,480 –> 00:22:47,400
so Universal to assume that we are
普遍认为我们

532
00:22:47,400 –> 00:22:49,159
already in a state of conflict with
已经与中国处于冲突状态，

533
00:22:49,159 –> 00:22:53,000
China on not just party lines but like
不仅在党派界限上，而且就像

534
00:22:53,000 –> 00:22:55,159
almost any Spectrum you could kind of
几乎任何你可以认为的频谱一样，他

535
00:22:55,159 –> 00:22:56,640
like

536
00:22:56,640 –> 00:22:59,559
consider said it exact right and he
说的完全正确，他

537
00:22:59,559 –> 00:23:02,000
predicted it better than anyone in the
预测了这一点 比全世界任何人都好

538
00:23:02,000 –> 00:23:06,039
whole world in 2001 he said when China
2001年，他说，当中国

539
00:23:06,039 –> 00:23:08,480
becomes large we’re going to have
变得强大时，我们将会发生

540
00:23:08,480 –> 00:23:11,240
conflict because that’s John’s Theory
冲突，因为这是约翰的理论

541
00:23:11,240 –> 00:23:13,000
and it’s right as a description of
，这对美国外交政策的描述是正确的：

542
00:23:13,000 –> 00:23:15,520
American foreign policy that we are for
我们追求

543
00:23:15,520 –> 00:23:17,840
power they are big therefore they’re an
权力，他们很大，因此他们是

544
00:23:17,840 –> 00:23:20,279
enemy they’re an enemy of our aspiration
敌人，他们是我们愿望的敌人

545
00:23:20,279 –> 00:23:24,000
to Global City tra City let let’s let
到全球城市 tra 城市 让我们让

546
00:23:24,000 –> 00:23:25,400
John jump in here do you want you want
约翰跳到这里 你想让

547
00:23:25,400 –> 00:23:27,640
me to is it okay if I talk about this
我来吗 我可以谈论这个 是

548
00:23:27,640 –> 00:23:30,720
yeah yeah I mean I think um I think that
的 是的 我的意思是我认为嗯 我认为

549
00:23:30,720 –> 00:23:33,480
um what’s interesting I mean you and
嗯 有什么有趣的 我的意思是你和

550
00:23:33,480 –> 00:23:35,279
Jeff I think arrive at similar
杰夫 我想到达

551
00:23:35,279 –> 00:23:38,039
conclusions about Ukraine uh but
关于乌克兰的结论相似，但是

552
00:23:38,039 –> 00:23:40,000
different ones on China right because
关于中国的结论不同，因为

553
00:23:40,000 –> 00:23:41,880
Jeff is an economist and I think sees
杰夫是一名经济学家，我认为基于贸易经济的潜力，我认为

554
00:23:41,880 –> 00:23:44,559
the world in fundamentally positive some
世界在某些

555
00:23:44,559 –> 00:23:47,480
ways based on the potential for trade
方面从

556
00:23:47,480 –> 00:23:49,640
economics basically whereas you see the
根本上是积极的，而你认为

557
00:23:49,640 –> 00:23:52,320
world as more of a zero sum game based
世界更多的是基于零和游戏

558
00:23:52,320 –> 00:23:53,679
on the balance of power why don’t you
权力平衡 你为什么不

559
00:23:53,679 –> 00:23:56,679
just explain that difference I okay uh
解释一下这种差异 我好吧呃，

560
00:23:56,679 –> 00:23:58,880
it is very important to emphasize David
强调大卫是很重要的

561
00:23:58,880 –> 00:24:01,000
was saying that Jeff and I agree on all

562
00:24:01,000 –> 00:24:03,039
sorts of issues including Ukraine and

563
00:24:03,039 –> 00:24:05,360
Israel Palestine but we disagree

564
00:24:05,360 –> 00:24:07,480
fundamentally as he just made clear on

565
00:24:07,480 –> 00:24:09,360
China and let me explain to you why I
让我向你解释一下为什么我

566
00:24:09,360 –> 00:24:11,480
think that’s the case and then Jeff can
认为 就是这样，然后杰夫可以

567
00:24:11,480 –> 00:24:15,240
tell you why he thinks I’m wrong
告诉你为什么他认为我错了，

568
00:24:15,240 –> 00:24:17,919
uh it has to do with security whether
呃，这与安全有关，无论

569
00:24:17,919 –> 00:24:20,720
you privilege security or survival or
你优先考虑安全还是生存，

570
00:24:20,720 –> 00:24:23,080
whether you privilege prosperity and
还是优先考虑繁荣和

571
00:24:23,080 –> 00:24:24,679
economists and I would imagine most of
经济学家，我想

572
00:24:24,679 –> 00:24:26,480
you in the audience really care greatly
观众中的大多数人都非常关心

573
00:24:26,480 –> 00:24:28,960
about maximizing prosperity for someone
为像

574
00:24:28,960 –> 00:24:30,600
like me who’s a realist what I care
我这样的现实主义者实现繁荣最大化，我

575
00:24:30,600 –> 00:24:32,880
about is maximizing the state’s
关心的是最大化国家的

576
00:24:32,880 –> 00:24:35,320
prospects of survival and when you live
生存前景，当你生活

577
00:24:35,320 –> 00:24:38,360
in an Antarctic system and in IR speak
在南极系统中，用国际关系的话说，

578
00:24:38,360 –> 00:24:40,320
that means there’s no higher authority
这意味着没有更高的权威，也

579
00:24:40,320 –> 00:24:42,080
there’s no night Watchmen that can come
没有可以下来的守夜人

580
00:24:42,080 –> 00:24:43,960
down and rescue you if you get into
如果你遇到麻烦，就会拯救你，

581
00:24:43,960 –> 00:24:45,799
trouble and this is the International
这是国际

582
00:24:45,799 –> 00:24:47,880
System there’s no higher authority in
体系，在那个无政府主义的世界里没有更高的权威，

583
00:24:47,880 –> 00:24:50,559
that anarchic world the best way to
最好的

584
00:24:50,559 –> 00:24:53,679
survive is to be really powerful as we
生存方式就是变得非常强大，就像

585
00:24:53,679 –> 00:24:55,240
used to say when I was a kid on New York
我小时候在纽约市游乐场时我们常说的那样，

586
00:24:55,240 –> 00:24:56,679
City playgrounds you want to be the
你想要 成为

587
00:24:56,679 –> 00:24:58,840
biggest and baddest dude on the Block
街区里最大、最坏的家伙，

588
00:24:58,840 –> 00:25:00,799
and that’s simply because it’s the best
这只是因为

589
00:25:00,799 –> 00:25:03,360
way to survive if you’re really powerful
如果你真的很强大，这是最好的生存方式

590
00:25:03,360 –> 00:25:06,039
nobody fools around with you the United
没有人跟你开玩笑

591
00:25:06,039 –> 00:25:08,520
States is a regional hedgemon it’s the
美国是一个地区对冲国它是

592
00:25:08,520 –> 00:25:11,120
only Regional hedgemon on the planet we
地球上唯一的地区对冲国我们

593
00:25:11,120 –> 00:25:14,200
dominate the Western Hemisphere and what
统治着西方 西半球，

594
00:25:14,200 –> 00:25:18,120
China has begun to do as it’s got
随着中国经济实力日益强大，中国已经开始做的

595
00:25:18,120 –> 00:25:21,640
increasingly powerful economically is
就是将

596
00:25:21,640 –> 00:25:23,960
translate that economic might into
经济实力转化为

597
00:25:23,960 –> 00:25:27,200
military might and it is trying to
军事实力，它正试图

598
00:25:27,200 –> 00:25:29,799
dominate Asia it wants to push us out
主宰亚洲，它想把我们

599
00:25:29,799 –> 00:25:31,679
beyond the first island chain it wants
赶出第一岛链，它

600
00:25:31,679 –> 00:25:33,640
to push us out beyond the second island
想把我们赶出第二岛链

601
00:25:33,640 –> 00:25:35,600
chain it wants to be like we are in the
它希望就像我们在

602
00:25:35,600 –> 00:25:38,200
Western Hemisphere and I don’t blame the
西半球一样，

603
00:25:38,200 –> 00:25:40,600
Chinese one bit if I was the National
如果我是

604
00:25:40,600 –> 00:25:43,039
Security advisor in Beijing that’s what
北京的国家安全顾问，我不会责怪中国人，这就是

605
00:25:43,039 –> 00:25:45,240
I’d be telling XI ping we should be
我告诉习近平我们应该

606
00:25:45,240 –> 00:25:47,559
trying to do but of course from an
努力做的事情，但当然

607
00:25:47,559 –> 00:25:49,600
American point of view this is
美国人的观点是这样的

608
00:25:49,600 –> 00:25:53,279
unacceptable and we do not tolerate peer
不可接受，我们不容忍同行

609
00:25:53,279 –> 00:25:57,159
competitors we do not want another
竞争者，我们不希望

610
00:25:57,159 –> 00:25:59,760
Regional hedgemon on the planet in the
地球上出现另一个地区霸主。

611
00:25:59,760 –> 00:26:01,919
20th century there were four countries
20世纪，有四个国家

612
00:26:01,919 –> 00:26:04,039
that threatened to become Regional
威胁要成为

613
00:26:04,039 –> 00:26:07,480
hegemons like us Imperial Germany
像我们这样的地区霸主：德意志帝国、

614
00:26:07,480 –> 00:26:10,240
Imperial Japan Nazi Germany and the
日本帝国、纳粹德国和

615
00:26:10,240 –> 00:26:12,799
Soviet Union the United States played a
苏联，美国发挥了

616
00:26:12,799 –> 00:26:15,120
key role in putting all four of those
关键作用

617
00:26:15,120 –> 00:26:17,480
countries on the scrap peap of History

618
00:26:17,480 –> 00:26:19,880
we want to remain the only Regional
我们希望继续成为

619
00:26:19,880 –> 00:26:23,360
hedgemon in the world we are a ruthless
世界上唯一的地区对冲国家，我们是一个无情的

620
00:26:23,360 –> 00:26:25,840
great power never want to lose sight of
大国，永远不想忽视

621
00:26:25,840 –> 00:26:28,559
that fact and the end result of this is
这一事实，而最终的结果是，

622
00:26:28,559 –> 00:26:31,120
you get an intense security competition
你会得到强烈的

623
00:26:31,120 –> 00:26:33,559
between China
之间的安全竞争 中国

624
00:26:33,559 –> 00:26:36,720
and the United States and it revolves
和美国，它

625
00:26:36,720 –> 00:26:39,919
around the concept of security not
围绕着安全概念而不是

626
00:26:39,919 –> 00:26:42,200
Prosperity what you just very quickly so
繁荣，你很快就会

627
00:26:42,200 –> 00:26:45,360
what you see beginning to happen is that
看到开始发生的事情是，

628
00:26:45,360 –> 00:26:47,880
it’s in all domains where the

629
00:26:47,880 –> 00:26:50,039
competition takes place especially
竞争发生在所有领域，特别是

630
00:26:50,039 –> 00:26:53,240
high-tech we do not want them defeating
高科技领域，我们不希望他们击败

631
00:26:53,240 –> 00:26:56,799
this defeating Us in the Hightech War we
这场失败 我们在高科技战争中，我们在

632
00:26:56,799 –> 00:26:59,000
are competing with them econom ically we
经济上与他们竞争，我们在

633
00:26:59,000 –> 00:27:01,720
are competing with them militarily and
军事上与他们竞争，

634
00:27:01,720 –> 00:27:04,240
this is because the best way to survive
这是因为对我们来说，最好的生存方式

635
00:27:04,240 –> 00:27:06,520
is for us the United States of America
是美利坚合众国

636
00:27:06,520 –> 00:27:11,200
to be the only Regional hedgemon on the
成为地球上唯一的区域对冲国，

637
00:27:11,440 –> 00:27:14,399
planet so Jeff let me let me set it up
所以杰夫让我让我 设置它

638
00:27:14,399 –> 00:27:18,200
for for Jeff here so Jeff I you and John
对于杰夫来说，所以杰夫，我，你和约翰，

639
00:27:18,200 –> 00:27:21,080
I think agree that the the game on on
我认为棋盘上的游戏

640
00:27:21,080 –> 00:27:23,960
the board is power seeking I think what
是寻求权力，我认为

641
00:27:23,960 –> 00:27:26,200
John is saying is there are smart ways
约翰所说的是追求权力有聪明的方法

642
00:27:26,200 –> 00:27:28,919
and dumb ways to pursue power
和愚蠢的方法，

643
00:27:28,919 –> 00:27:30,840
that containing China is a smart way
遏制中国是我们的明智方法 “

644
00:27:30,840 –> 00:27:33,120
what we’re doing in Ukraine is a dumb
在乌克兰所做的事情是一种愚蠢的

645
00:27:33,120 –> 00:27:35,399
way whereas it seems like you’re saying
方式，而你似乎在说

646
00:27:35,399 –> 00:27:37,799
that all power seeking behavior is bad
所有寻求权力的行为都是不好的，

647
00:27:37,799 –> 00:27:39,080
that’s not the game we should be playing
这不是我们应该玩的游戏，

648
00:27:39,080 –> 00:27:41,159
we should somehow opt out of that is
我们应该以某种方式选择退出，

649
00:27:41,159 –> 00:27:43,080
that is that kind of where you’re going
这就是你要去的地方

650
00:27:43,080 –> 00:27:45,640
it’s a it’s not a bad way to say it but
这是一个不错的说法，但

651
00:27:45,640 –> 00:27:48,360
I would I would put it in in another way
我 我会用另一种方式表达吗？

652
00:27:48,360 –> 00:27:53,440
I read a very good book uh John’s
我读了一本非常好的书，呃约翰的

653
00:27:53,440 –> 00:27:55,840
um and and
嗯，

654
00:27:55,840 –> 00:27:58,960
John described
约翰描述说

655
00:27:58,960 –> 00:28:00,760
I’m going to quote him but he can quote
我要引用他的话，但他可以

656
00:28:00,760 –> 00:28:04,399
himself afterwards he he he said that
稍后引用他自己的话，他说，

657
00:28:04,399 –> 00:28:05,760
the regional
地区

658
00:28:05,760 –> 00:28:08,559
hegemons uh don’t threaten each other
霸主呃不会互相威胁

659
00:28:08,559 –> 00:28:11,159
actually why because we have big ocean
实际上为什么，因为我们之间有广阔的海洋，

660
00:28:11,159 –> 00:28:12,000
in

661
00:28:12,000 –> 00:28:13,679
between

662
00:28:13,679 –> 00:28:17,919
I deeply believe that China is not a
我坚信中国不会

663
00:28:17,919 –> 00:28:21,360
threat to the United States and I deeply
对美国构成威胁，而且我

664
00:28:21,360 –> 00:28:24,080
believe the only threat to the United
坚信，

665
00:28:24,080 –> 00:28:27,600
States period in the world given the

666
00:28:27,600 –> 00:28:30,720
oceans given our size and given the
考虑到海洋、考虑到我们的幅员和

667
00:28:30,720 –> 00:28:33,080
military is nuclear
军事力量，核

668
00:28:33,080 –> 00:28:36,440
war I deeply believe we’re close to
战争是世界上对美国的唯一威胁 我坚信我们已经接近

669
00:28:36,440 –> 00:28:42,320
nuclear war because we have a mindset
核能 战争，因为我们有一种心态

670
00:28:42,320 –> 00:28:45,159
that leads us in that direction we have
引导我们朝这个方向前进，我们有

671
00:28:45,159 –> 00:28:47,600
a mindset that everything is a challenge
一种心态，一切都是生存的挑战，

672
00:28:47,600 –> 00:28:50,399
for survival and that escalation is

673
00:28:50,399 –> 00:28:53,440
therefore always the right approach my
因此升级始终是正确的方法，我的

674
00:28:53,440 –> 00:28:56,240
view is a little bit of prudence could
观点是一点点谨慎可以

675
00:28:56,240 –> 00:28:58,559
save the whole planet
拯救整个地球，

676
00:28:58,559 –> 00:29:02,080
so why I don’t like Ukraine is that I
所以为什么我不这样做？ 与乌克兰不同的是，我

677
00:29:02,080 –> 00:29:05,080
don’t see any reason in the world that
看不出世界上有任何理由认为

678
00:29:05,080 –> 00:29:08,600
NATO has to be on Russia’s border with
北约必须位于俄罗斯与乌克兰的边境，

679
00:29:08,600 –> 00:29:11,840
Ukraine I was as I said gorbachov’s
正如我所说，戈尔巴乔夫的

680
00:29:11,840 –> 00:29:14,679
adviser and yelton’s adviser and they
顾问和叶尔顿的顾问，他们

681
00:29:14,679 –> 00:29:17,440
wanted peace and they wanted cooperation
想要和平，他们想要合作，

682
00:29:17,440 –> 00:29:19,760
but whatever they wanted they did not
但无论他们想要什么，他们都做了 不

683
00:29:19,760 –> 00:29:23,799
want the US military on their border so
希望美国军队进入他们的边境，所以

684
00:29:23,799 –> 00:29:26,679
if we continued to push as we did we
如果我们继续像以前那样推进，我们

685
00:29:26,679 –> 00:29:29,440
would get to war John explained that
就会爆发战争。约翰解释说，

686
00:29:29,440 –> 00:29:32,960
better than anybody we’re now at War and
我们现在处于战争状态，这比任何人都好，

687
00:29:32,960 –> 00:29:35,399
even this morning there is further
即使今天早上，局势还会进一步

688
00:29:35,399 –> 00:29:38,000
escalation blinkin has said well if the
升级，如果伊朗人放弃的话，布林金说得很好。

689
00:29:38,000 –> 00:29:40,039
Iranians give these missiles then we
这些导弹，然后我们

690
00:29:40,039 –> 00:29:41,760
will give missiles to hit deep into
将提供导弹深入

691
00:29:41,760 –> 00:29:45,840
Russia this is a recipe and then we had
俄罗斯，这是一个秘诀，然后我们让

692
00:29:45,840 –> 00:29:48,840
Bill Burns the CIA director say last
中央情报局局长比尔伯恩斯上周说

693
00:29:48,840 –> 00:29:52,000
week an absurdity that he knows but Cia
他知道这是荒谬的，但中央情报局

694
00:29:52,000 –> 00:29:53,880
directors never tell the truth if they
局长永远不会说实话，如果他们这样

695
00:29:53,880 –> 00:29:56,480
do they lose their job but he said don’t
做，他们就会丢掉工作，但他说 别

696
00:29:56,480 –> 00:29:58,679
worry about nuclear war don’t worry
担心 核战争，不要担心

697
00:29:58,679 –> 00:30:02,279
about saber rattling my advice to you is
武力威胁，我给你的建议是，要

698
00:30:02,279 –> 00:30:06,279
worry a lot about nuclear war and so be
非常担心核战争，所以要

699
00:30:06,279 –> 00:30:10,120
prudent you don’t have to put the US
谨慎，你不必把美军部署

700
00:30:10,120 –> 00:30:14,679
military on Russia’s border okay and my
在俄罗斯边境，好吧，我

701
00:30:14,679 –> 00:30:16,919
advice to Russia and to Mexico when I’m
对俄罗斯和墨西哥的建议是，当我

702
00:30:16,919 –> 00:30:18,960
going to Mexico tomorrow I’ll give them
明天去墨西哥我会给他们

703
00:30:18,960 –> 00:30:22,080
a piece of advice don’t let China or
一个建议，不要让中国或

704
00:30:22,080 –> 00:30:24,279
Russia build a military base on the r
俄罗斯在河上建立军事基地

705
00:30:24,279 –> 00:30:27,799
Grant not a good idea for Mexico not a
格兰特对墨西哥不是一个

706
00:30:27,799 –> 00:30:29,880
good good idea for Ukraine not a good
好主意对乌克兰不是一个好

707
00:30:29,880 –> 00:30:31,960
idea for Russia not a good idea for
主意对俄罗斯不是一个好主意 对中国来说这个想法

708
00:30:31,960 –> 00:30:34,000
China not a good idea for the United
对美国来说不是一个好主意

709
00:30:34,000 –> 00:30:36,519
States we need to stay a little bit away
需要彼此保持一点距离，

710
00:30:36,519 –> 00:30:39,120
from each other so that we don’t have a
这样我们就不会爆发

711
00:30:39,120 –> 00:30:42,360
nuclear war by the way I do recommend
核战争，顺便说一句，我推荐

712
00:30:42,360 –> 00:30:44,720
another good book and that is Annie
另一本好书，那就是安妮·

713
00:30:44,720 –> 00:30:47,880
Jacobson’s nuclear war a scenario it
雅各布森的核战争，一个

714
00:30:47,880 –> 00:30:50,200
takes two hours to read the world ends
需要两个小时才能读完的场景，

715
00:30:50,200 –> 00:30:53,080
in two hours in the book uh and uh it’s
两个小时后世界就会结束 在书中，嗯，嗯，这是

716
00:30:53,080 –> 00:30:54,360
a very
一本非常

717
00:30:54,360 –> 00:30:58,399
persuasive guide that one nuke can ruin
有说服力的指南，一颗核武器可以毁掉

718
00:30:58,399 –> 00:31:01,320
your whole day as they say Jeffrey can
你一整天，正如他们所说，杰弗里可以，

719
00:31:01,320 –> 00:31:05,039
um uh my my strong advice on this
嗯，我对此的强烈建议是，

720
00:31:05,039 –> 00:31:08,639
therefore is recognize China first of
首先要认识到中国

721
00:31:08,639 –> 00:31:13,639
all is not a threat to the United States
不是对美国

722
00:31:13,639 –> 00:31:16,679
security big oceans big nuclear
安全的威胁。 大核

723
00:31:16,679 –> 00:31:19,519
deterrent and so forth second we don’t
威慑等等 其次，我们

724
00:31:19,519 –> 00:31:22,399
have to be in China’s face what do I
不必面对中国，我的

725
00:31:22,399 –> 00:31:24,240
mean by that we don’t have to provoke
意思是，我们不必因

726
00:31:24,240 –> 00:31:27,240
World War III Over Taiwan that’s a long
台湾问题挑起第三次世界大战，这是一个长期

727
00:31:27,240 –> 00:31:29,159
complicated issue but this would be the
复杂的问题，但这

728
00:31:29,159 –> 00:31:31,120
stupidest thing for my grandchildren to
对我的孙子来说是最愚蠢的事情

729
00:31:31,120 –> 00:31:35,559
die for imaginable and I resent it every
可以想象，我每天都对此感到不满，

730
00:31:35,559 –> 00:31:39,240
day when we play that game we have three
当我们玩这个游戏时，我们

731
00:31:39,240 –> 00:31:41,320
agreements with China that say we’re
与中国达成了三项协议，这些协议说我们

732
00:31:41,320 –> 00:31:44,480
going to stay out of that and we should
将不参与其中，我们应该这样做，

733
00:31:44,480 –> 00:31:46,840
and then China would have no reason for
然后中国就没有理由发动

734
00:31:46,840 –> 00:31:49,480
war either
战争，无论是

735
00:31:49,480 –> 00:31:52,360
China and then on the economic side let
中国还是经济方面 让

736
00:31:52,360 –> 00:31:55,360
me just reiterate because I was asked
我重申一下 因为昨天有人问我

737
00:31:55,360 –> 00:31:57,480
yesterday and there was some surprise
，让我感到有些惊讶，

738
00:31:57,480 –> 00:32:00,200
was it good to let China into the the
让中国加入

739
00:32:00,200 –> 00:32:03,320
WTO I said of course it enriched all of
世贸组织是好事吗？我说，当然，它让你们所有人都富裕起来，

740
00:32:03,320 –> 00:32:06,080
you by the way it enriched me it
就像它使我富裕一样，它使

741
00:32:06,080 –> 00:32:08,039
enriched this country it enriched the
这个国家富裕了，它使

742
00:32:08,039 –> 00:32:11,200
world including enriching China that’s
世界富裕了，包括使中国富裕了，这

743
00:32:11,200 –> 00:32:14,200
normal economics is not a zero sum game
是正常的经济学 这不是零和游戏，

744
00:32:14,200 –> 00:32:17,159
we all agree on that I believe that
我们都同意，我相信

745
00:32:17,159 –> 00:32:19,639
security doesn’t have to be a zero sum
安全不一定是零和

746
00:32:19,639 –> 00:32:22,480
game either we can stay a little bit
游戏，我们可以彼此保持一点

747
00:32:22,480 –> 00:32:25,919
away from each other and China does not
距离，中国不会

748
00:32:25,919 –> 00:32:29,440
spend its time beon in America being a
把时间花在美国成为

749
00:32:29,440 –> 00:32:33,279
western hemisphere hegemon they don’t
西半球霸主身上 他们不

750
00:32:33,279 –> 00:32:35,159
that’s not their greatest interest to
这不是他们最大的兴趣，就是要

751
00:32:35,159 –> 00:32:38,279
bring down American uh Power in the
打倒美国在

752
00:32:38,279 –> 00:32:40,399
Western Hemisphere Jee what about the
西半球的权力，Jee，那么

753
00:32:40,399 –> 00:32:42,880
energy hold on let’s let John respond to
能源保持怎么样呢，让我们让约翰

754
00:32:42,880 –> 00:32:45,840
this just very quickly most of you have
很快地对此做出回应，你们中的大多数人

755
00:32:45,840 –> 00:32:47,639
probably never asked yourself the
可能从来没有问过自己这个

756
00:32:47,639 –> 00:32:49,799
question why is the United States
问题：为什么美国在

757
00:32:49,799 –> 00:32:52,559
roaming all over the planet interfering
世界各地漫游？ 这个星球干涉

758
00:32:52,559 –> 00:32:54,960
in every country’s business it’s in part
每个国家的商业，部分

759
00:32:54,960 –> 00:32:57,080
because it’s so powerful but it’s also
原因是它太强大了，但也

760
00:32:57,080 –> 00:32:59,519
because it’s a hegemon which means we
因为它是一个霸主，这意味着我们

761
00:32:59,519 –> 00:33:01,080
have no threats in the Western
在西半球没有威胁，

762
00:33:01,080 –> 00:33:05,039
Hemisphere so we are free to roam the
所以我们可以自由地漫游

763
00:33:05,039 –> 00:33:08,000
great danger Jeff if China becomes a
杰夫，如果中国成为一个巨大的危险

764
00:33:08,000 –> 00:33:10,399
regional hedgemon and doesn’t have to
区域对冲国，不必

765
00:33:10,399 –> 00:33:12,120
worry about security conc then they
担心安全问题 那么他们的

766
00:33:12,120 –> 00:33:13,919
behave like us yeah then they behave
行为就像我们一样 是的，那么他们的行为

767
00:33:13,919 –> 00:33:17,519
like us exact but my point to you Jeff
就像我们一样 但我对你的观点杰夫

768
00:33:17,519 –> 00:33:20,840
is let’s prevent that from happening by
是让我们通过

769
00:33:20,840 –> 00:33:22,880
preventing them from becoming a regional
阻止他们成为我们

770
00:33:22,880 –> 00:33:24,960
hedgemon we don’t want them to have
不希望的区域对冲国来防止这种情况发生 他们有

771
00:33:24,960 –> 00:33:27,039
freedom to roam you were talking about
自由漫游的权利，你说的是

772
00:33:27,039 –> 00:33:30,120
them putting military bases in Mexico
他们在墨西哥建立军事基地，

773
00:33:30,120 –> 00:33:32,679
that’s our great fear it’s not my great
这是我们最担心的，但这不是我最

774
00:33:32,679 –> 00:33:35,120
fear they have no interest in doing so
担心的，他们对此没有兴趣，

775
00:33:35,120 –> 00:33:36,559
because they don’t want to get blown up
因为他们也不想被炸毁，

776
00:33:36,559 –> 00:33:38,559
either so they do seem to have a big
所以他们似乎确实有

777
00:33:38,559 –> 00:33:41,799
interest Jeff in Africa India Russia and
杰夫对非洲、印度、俄罗斯和

778
00:33:41,799 –> 00:33:43,159
they
他们

779
00:33:43,159 –> 00:33:45,440
are China has a
是中国在那里有一个

780
00:33:45,440 –> 00:33:49,000
major um military bases there oh well
主要的军事基地哦，好吧，

781
00:33:49,000 –> 00:33:50,480
they’re building nuclear power plants in
他们正在贸易中建造核电站

782
00:33:50,480 –> 00:33:53,200
trade and they’re building de difference
，他们正在建立有

783
00:33:53,200 –> 00:33:55,080
in favor of that let’s go compete that
利于我们去竞争的差异，

784
00:33:55,080 –> 00:33:56,760
way I’m all in favor of that but Jeff
我完全赞成这一点，但杰夫，

785
00:33:56,760 –> 00:33:59,440
that’s cuz they’re not a Regal hegemon
因为他们 “还不是富豪霸主，

786
00:33:59,440 –> 00:34:03,039
yet yeah if you try to prevent them from
是的，如果你试图阻止他们

787
00:34:03,039 –> 00:34:04,639
being a regional hegemon we’re going to
成为地区霸主，我们

788
00:34:04,639 –> 00:34:07,320
end up in World War I because as you say
最终将陷入第一次世界大战，因为正如你

789
00:34:07,320 –> 00:34:10,639
yourself that this can absolutely spill
自己所说，这绝对会蔓延

790
00:34:10,639 –> 00:34:13,560
over into war I don’t want it to spill
成战争，我不希望它发生 蔓延

791
00:34:13,560 –> 00:34:16,320
over into war on the theory that maybe
至战争 也许

792
00:34:16,320 –> 00:34:18,520
someday they behave differently that’s
有一天他们的行为会有所不同，这

793
00:34:18,520 –> 00:34:20,879
not a good theory for me so so so that
对我来说不是一个好理论，

794
00:34:20,879 –> 00:34:24,280
part so John can we contain China
所以约翰我们可以遏制中国，

795
00:34:24,280 –> 00:34:25,599
prevent them from becoming a regional
防止他们在

796
00:34:25,599 –> 00:34:28,440
haimon without Direct ly defending
不直接保卫

797
00:34:28,440 –> 00:34:30,000
Taiwan I mean isn’t that where the
台湾的情况下成为地区性的海蒙，我的意思是，这不是

798
00:34:30,000 –> 00:34:32,879
rubber meets the road no it’s not just
橡胶与道路相遇的地方 不，不仅仅是

799
00:34:32,879 –> 00:34:34,879
Taiwan I mean one could argue there’s
台湾，我的意思是有人可能会说

800
00:34:34,879 –> 00:34:37,040
sort of three flash points in East Asia
东亚存在三个热点，

801
00:34:37,040 –> 00:34:38,960
that you folks should keep your eye on
你们应该

802
00:34:38,960 –> 00:34:41,440
one is obviously Taiwan two is the South
密切关注，一是台湾，二是

803
00:34:41,440 –> 00:34:43,879
China Sea and three is the East China
南海，三是

804
00:34:43,879 –> 00:34:46,440
Sea and I think David that the place
东海，我认为大卫

805
00:34:46,440 –> 00:34:48,879
where a conflict is most likely today is
最有可能发生冲突的地方 今天

806
00:34:48,879 –> 00:34:51,119
not over Taiwan I could explain why I
不是关于台湾的问题，我可以解释为什么我

807
00:34:51,119 –> 00:34:53,639
think Taiwan is not a serious problem at
认为台湾目前或在可预见的未来并不是一个严重的问题，

808
00:34:53,639 –> 00:34:55,719
the moment or for the foreseeable future

809
00:34:55,719 –> 00:34:57,920
the South China Sea is a very dangerous
南海是一个非常危险的

810
00:34:57,920 –> 00:35:01,280
place we could end up in a war for sure
地方，

811
00:35:01,280 –> 00:35:04,000
even if we did not defend
即使我们不保卫

812
00:35:04,000 –> 00:35:07,720
Taiwan uh so Taiwan you don’t want to
台湾，我们也肯定会陷入战争 呃所以台湾你不想

813
00:35:07,720 –> 00:35:10,720
overemphasize I agree with I agree with
过分强调我同意我同意

814
00:35:10,720 –> 00:35:14,000
Jeff that we definitely don’t want a war
杰夫的观点，我们绝对不想要战争，

815
00:35:14,000 –> 00:35:15,560
and we certainly don’t want a nuclear
我们当然不想要核

816
00:35:15,560 –> 00:35:17,800
war and he is absolutely correct that
战争，他是绝对正确的，

817
00:35:17,800 –> 00:35:20,200
there’s a risk of a nuclear war if a war
如果

818
00:35:20,200 –> 00:35:22,800
breaks out of any sort between China and
中国与美国之间爆发任何形式的战争

819
00:35:22,800 –> 00:35:25,280
the United States many of us in the
美国，我们观众中的许多人都

820
00:35:25,280 –> 00:35:27,359
audience remember the Cold War and this
记得冷战，这

821
00:35:27,359 –> 00:35:29,359
was an everpresent danger in the Cold
是冷战中始终存在的危险，

822
00:35:29,359 –> 00:35:32,240
War but my argument is that this is
但我的观点是，这是

823
00:35:32,240 –> 00:35:34,560
inevitable because in a world where you
不可避免的，因为在一个你

824
00:35:34,560 –> 00:35:37,040
don’t have a higher authority and you
没有更高权威并且你

825
00:35:37,040 –> 00:35:39,440
care about your survival you have a
关心你的生存的世界中，你 有着

826
00:35:39,440 –> 00:35:41,720
deep-seated interest as any state in the
根深蒂固的兴趣，因为系统中的任何国家都

827
00:35:41,720 –> 00:35:45,160
system to be as powerful as possible and
尽可能强大，

828
00:35:45,160 –> 00:35:47,800
that means dominating your world um
这意味着统治你的世界，嗯，

India’s growing role; are China’s wound self-inflicted?

829
00:35:47,800 –> 00:35:50,359
there is one uh player on this chess
这个国际象棋棋盘上有一个呃玩家

830
00:35:50,359 –> 00:35:51,839
board that hasn’t come up yet and then
还没有出现，然后

831
00:35:51,839 –> 00:35:53,000
maybe we could skate to where the puck
也许我们可以滑到那个地方

832
00:35:53,000 –> 00:35:55,079
is going you know when you talk about
当你谈论冰球时你就知道

833
00:35:55,079 –> 00:35:57,040
the South China Sea okay sure South
南中国海好吧，

834
00:35:57,040 –> 00:35:59,280
Korea Japan Jaan Australia all those
韩国，日本，贾恩，澳大利亚，

835
00:35:59,280 –> 00:36:00,480
major players there they’re just a
那里的所有主要参与者，他们只有

836
00:36:00,480 –> 00:36:02,520
couple hundred million people but then
几亿人口，但

837
00:36:02,520 –> 00:36:05,359
China is in population decline she
中国人口正在下降，她

838
00:36:05,359 –> 00:36:06,960
apparently is self-destructing in terms
显然在贸易方面正在自我毁灭，

839
00:36:06,960 –> 00:36:09,280
of trade seems like uh containment is
似乎呃，遏制措施在

840
00:36:09,280 –> 00:36:10,680
working pretty well there because of the
那里运作得很好 因为

841
00:36:10,680 –> 00:36:12,800
all the self-inflicted wounds but the
所有的自伤，但

842
00:36:12,800 –> 00:36:14,760
fastest growing country fastest growing
增长最快的国家、经济增长最快、

843
00:36:14,760 –> 00:36:17,000
economy the quickest to develop is India
发展最快的是印度，

844
00:36:17,000 –> 00:36:19,640
and they seem to have a very pragmatic
他们似乎采取了非常务实的

845
00:36:19,640 –> 00:36:21,839
approach hey they’ll buy cheap oil from
做法，嘿，他们会从普京那里购买廉价石油

846
00:36:21,839 –> 00:36:23,880
Putin and they are their own sovereign
，他们是自己的主权

847
00:36:23,880 –> 00:36:25,720
country with their own point of view
国家，拥有自己的主权。 自己的观点

848
00:36:25,720 –> 00:36:28,520
Would we not be really well advised over
我们是否会在

849
00:36:28,520 –> 00:36:30,359
the next 10 to 20 years to make that our
未来 10 到 20 年里得到很好的建议，将其作为我们的

850
00:36:30,359 –> 00:36:32,240
priority and India’s role in this how do
优先事项以及印度在这方面的作用，

851
00:36:32,240 –> 00:36:34,960
you look at them well we definitely view
你如何看待它们，我们肯定将

852
00:36:34,960 –> 00:36:38,040
India as an ally right it’s part of the
印度视为盟友，对吧，它是

853
00:36:38,040 –> 00:36:40,720
Quad which is this uh this rubbe
四方会谈的一部分，就是这个呃这个垃圾

854
00:36:40,720 –> 00:36:43,000
Goldberg type Alliance structure that we
我们在东亚建立的戈德堡式联盟结构，

855
00:36:43,000 –> 00:36:45,280
put together in East Asia that includes
包括

856
00:36:45,280 –> 00:36:47,560
Australia Japan the United States and
澳大利亚、日本、美国和

857
00:36:47,560 –> 00:36:52,720
India and India is smartly maintaining
印度，印度正在巧妙地维持

858
00:36:52,720 –> 00:36:54,720
its good relations with Russia the
与俄罗斯的良好关系，

859
00:36:54,720 –> 00:36:56,960
Indians understand like Jeff and I do
印度人像杰夫和我一样明白，

860
00:36:56,960 –> 00:36:59,160
that the Russians are no great threat
俄罗斯人并不是一个巨大的威胁，

861
00:36:59,160 –> 00:37:01,480
but from India’s point of view the real
但从印度的角度来看 看法 真正的

862
00:37:01,480 –> 00:37:03,720
threat is China right right and there
威胁是中国，对，

863
00:37:03,720 –> 00:37:05,880
are two places where India cares about
印度有两个地方关心

864
00:37:05,880 –> 00:37:09,560
China One is on the India China border
中国，一个是在

865
00:37:09,560 –> 00:37:11,040
up in the Himalayas where they’ve
喜马拉雅山的中印边境，在那里他们

866
00:37:11,040 –> 00:37:13,640
actually had conflicts right and there’s
实际上发生了冲突，

867
00:37:13,640 –> 00:37:16,440
a real danger of War breaking out the
确实有爆发战争的危险，

868
00:37:16,440 –> 00:37:18,560
second place which is maybe even more
第二个地方是 也许更

869
00:37:18,560 –> 00:37:20,760
dangerous not at the moment but will be
危险的不是现在，但随着

870
00:37:20,760 –> 00:37:24,560
over time is the Indian Ocean because
时间的推移，印度洋会变得更危险，因为

871
00:37:24,560 –> 00:37:26,800
the Chinese are imitating the United
中国人正在效仿

872
00:37:26,800 –> 00:37:28,319
States they not not only want to be a
美国，他们不仅想成为

873
00:37:28,319 –> 00:37:30,800
regional hedgemon they want to develop
地区对冲者，还想发展

874
00:37:30,800 –> 00:37:33,040
power projection capability so the
力量投送能力，所以

875
00:37:33,040 –> 00:37:35,680
Chinese are building a Bluewater Navy
中国人正在建立一支蓝水海军

876
00:37:35,680 –> 00:37:38,319
that can come out of East Asia through
可以通过东亚地区

877
00:37:38,319 –> 00:37:40,960
the Straits of Mala through the Indian
穿过印度洋到波斯湾的马拉海峡

878
00:37:40,960 –> 00:37:44,040
Ocean to the Persian Gulf and once you
，一旦你

879
00:37:44,040 –> 00:37:45,680
start talking about going through the
开始谈论穿过

880
00:37:45,680 –> 00:37:49,920
Indian Ocean the Indians get spooked and
印度洋，印第安人就会感到害怕，

881
00:37:49,920 –> 00:37:51,800
that’s when the Americans in the Indians
那就是印第安人中的美国人

882
00:37:51,800 –> 00:37:54,040
come together okay let’s think of this
聚集在一起的时候，好吧，让我们

883
00:37:54,040 –> 00:37:56,000
from an engineering point of view if we
从工程的角度来考虑这一点，如果我们

884
00:37:56,000 –> 00:37:58,440
could um
嗯，

885
00:37:58,440 –> 00:38:01,960
why are the Chinese developing the Navy
为什么中国要发展海军，

886
00:38:01,960 –> 00:38:07,560
because for 40 years I’ve read essays on
因为40年来我读过

887
00:38:07,560 –> 00:38:11,520
all of the choke points uh in the South
关于

888
00:38:11,520 –> 00:38:13,839
China Sea the East China Sea the Indian
南海、东海、

889
00:38:13,839 –> 00:38:17,480
Ocean against China that’s our policy
印度洋对抗中国的所有瓶颈的文章，这就是我们的政策

890
00:38:17,480 –> 00:38:20,200
choke points look at the malaka Straits
瓶颈 在马六甲海峡

891
00:38:20,200 –> 00:38:22,640
look what we can do here first island
看看我们在这里能做什么 第一

892
00:38:22,640 –> 00:38:25,920
chain this is American strategy can we
岛链 这是美国的战略 我们可以

893
00:38:25,920 –> 00:38:28,040
keep the Chinese submarine out of the
让中国潜艇远离

894
00:38:28,040 –> 00:38:30,920
Pacific Ocean First China first island
太平洋 首先 中国第一

895
00:38:30,920 –> 00:38:34,400
chain and so forth so of course they
岛链等等 所以他们当然

896
00:38:34,400 –> 00:38:36,119
react they’re rich they’re going to
反应他们很富有 他们会

897
00:38:36,119 –> 00:38:38,079
build a Navy so that they can get their
建立一支海军，这样他们就可以获得

898
00:38:38,079 –> 00:38:40,599
oil on which their economy runs can we
经济赖以生存的石油，我们能否

899
00:38:40,599 –> 00:38:43,800
be a little bit sensible with them and
对他们明智一点，并

900
00:38:43,800 –> 00:38:45,640
decide how we’re not going to have choke
决定如何避免出现

901
00:38:45,640 –> 00:38:47,200
points and then we don’t have to have a
瓶颈，然后我们就不必爆发

902
00:38:47,200 –> 00:38:48,800
nuclear war which is really going to
核战争 真的会

903
00:38:48,800 –> 00:38:52,400
ruin our day that’s the point we can
毁了我们的一天，这就是我们的重点 可以

904
00:38:52,400 –> 00:38:54,760
think a little bit we can understand it
想一下，我们可以

905
00:38:54,760 –> 00:38:56,640
from their perspective we can understand
从他们的角度理解它，我们可以

906
00:38:56,640 –> 00:39:00,119
it from our perspec perspective
从我们的角度理解它，

907
00:39:00,119 –> 00:39:03,359
deconfliction by the way I don’t believe
我不相信

908
00:39:03,359 –> 00:39:08,160
India is an ally India is a
印度是盟友，印度是一个

909
00:39:08,160 –> 00:39:10,480
superpower India is going to have its
超级大国，印度将有

910
00:39:10,480 –> 00:39:13,319
own very distinctive interests thank you
自己非常独特的利益，谢谢

911
00:39:13,319 –> 00:39:15,240
it’s not going to be an ally of the
。 不会成为美国的盟友

912
00:39:15,240 –> 00:39:17,319
United States I happen to like India
我碰巧非常喜欢印度

913
00:39:17,319 –> 00:39:20,599
enormously and and admire their policies
并钦佩他们的政策，

914
00:39:20,599 –> 00:39:23,119
but the idea that India is going to Ally
但印度将

915
00:39:23,119 –> 00:39:25,200
with the United States against
与美国结盟对抗

916
00:39:25,200 –> 00:39:29,160
China in somebody’s dream uh in
中国的想法在华盛顿的某人的梦想中，

917
00:39:29,160 –> 00:39:31,480
Washington because it’s another delusion
因为这是

918
00:39:31,480 –> 00:39:33,800
in Washington because they should get a
华盛顿的另一个错觉，因为他们 应该拿到

919
00:39:33,800 –> 00:39:36,720
passport and go see the world and and
护照，去看看世界，

920
00:39:36,720 –> 00:39:39,599
and understand
了解

921
00:39:39,960 –> 00:39:43,119
something but Jeffrey if they these are
一些东西，但是杰弗里，如果他们

922
00:39:43,119 –> 00:39:46,280
my fa students in Washington right now
现在是我在华盛顿的法学院学生，

923
00:39:46,280 –> 00:39:47,880
cuz they didn’t listen to their
因为他们没有听他们的

924
00:39:47,880 –> 00:39:49,880
Professor Jeffrey we’re we’re making our
杰弗里教授的话，我们现在正在印度制造我们的

925
00:39:49,880 –> 00:39:53,520
iPhones in India now is that not
iPhone 是

926
00:39:53,520 –> 00:39:55,440
significantly important say again we’re
再说一遍，我们正在

927
00:39:55,440 –> 00:39:58,480
moving iPhone production maybe Cooper
转移 iPhone 生产，也许库珀，

928
00:39:58,480 –> 00:40:00,319
you’re into economics here and that
你对这里的经济有影响，这对

929
00:40:00,319 –> 00:40:02,880
impact you you got Apple moving out of
你有影响，你让苹果公司搬出

930
00:40:02,880 –> 00:40:05,400
China you’ve got Japan funding people
中国，你让日本资助人们

931
00:40:05,400 –> 00:40:07,560
leaving China to Vietnam and to India is
离开中国前往越南和印度，

932
00:40:07,560 –> 00:40:08,960
that not the solution here as we
这不是解决方案 当我们

933
00:40:08,960 –> 00:40:10,960
decouple from China it seems like they
与中国脱钩时，他们似乎

934
00:40:10,960 –> 00:40:12,319
come back to the table we had XI
来了 回到谈判桌上，

935
00:40:12,319 –> 00:40:13,920
jingping kick all the Venture
习近平把所有的风险

936
00:40:13,920 –> 00:40:16,240
capitalists all investment out of China
投资家都踢出中国，

937
00:40:16,240 –> 00:40:18,680
he got rid of all the education startups
他摆脱了所有的教育初创公司，

938
00:40:18,680 –> 00:40:20,160
and then whatever two or three years
然后无论两三年

939
00:40:20,160 –> 00:40:22,000
later he’s in San Francisco asking all
后，他在旧金山要求

940
00:40:22,000 –> 00:40:23,720
of us to invest more money and saying
我们所有人投资更多的钱，并说

941
00:40:23,720 –> 00:40:27,560
where’d you go okay first of all uh
在哪里。 你会好吗首先呃

942
00:40:27,560 –> 00:40:29,319
invite me back 10 years and we’ll see
邀请我回来10年，我们会看到

943
00:40:29,319 –> 00:40:31,520
how smart all these decisions are
所有这些决定是多么明智，

944
00:40:31,520 –> 00:40:34,400
because uh Shing it’s incred no I’m
因为呃盛这令人难以置信不我

945
00:40:34,400 –> 00:40:36,520
talking about yes we’ve moved to India
说的是我们已经搬到印度，

946
00:40:36,520 –> 00:40:38,200
that’s our great Ally and then then
那是我们伟大的盟友然后然后

947
00:40:38,200 –> 00:40:41,200
we’re going to have other other issues
我们还会有其他问题，

948
00:40:41,200 –> 00:40:43,160
okay you I think you said that XI
好吧，我想你说过，

949
00:40:43,160 –> 00:40:46,920
jinping’s trade policy is uh implo self-
习近平的贸易政策是呃

950
00:40:46,920 –> 00:40:48,680
imploding or something it seems like
内爆，或者是一些看起来

951
00:40:48,680 –> 00:40:50,319
there’s a lot of self-inflicted wounds
有很多自伤的东西，

952
00:40:50,319 –> 00:40:52,000
when you it’s not let me explain what
当你不让我解释这些

953
00:40:52,000 –> 00:40:55,319
the wounds are okay the wounds are the
伤口是什么时 好吧，这些伤口是

954
00:40:55,319 –> 00:40:58,240
United States deliberate policy to stop
美国故意的政策，旨在阻止

955
00:40:58,240 –> 00:41:00,839
you from selling things to China and to
你向中国出售东西，并

956
00:41:00,839 –> 00:41:03,359
stop China buying things from you that’s
阻止中国从你那里购买东西，这

957
00:41:03,359 –> 00:41:06,480
not self-inflicted this a clear wait
不是自己造成的，这是一个明确的等待

958
00:41:06,480 –> 00:41:09,160
minute just to say let me say please
时间，只是想说让我说一下

959
00:41:09,160 –> 00:41:10,720
because it’s very important for the
因为

960
00:41:10,720 –> 00:41:13,400
economy of the people in this room this
这对在座的人们的经济非常重要，这

961
00:41:13,400 –> 00:41:17,040
is a decision that was taken around
是

962
00:41:17,040 –> 00:41:21,400
2014 to contain China and it’s been
2014 年左右为遏制中国而做出的决定，

963
00:41:21,400 –> 00:41:24,920
systematically applied since then and
从那时起它就被系统地应用，

964
00:41:24,920 –> 00:41:28,079
it’s not a surprise that Biden
拜登

965
00:41:28,079 –> 00:41:30,839
kept all the things that Trump did and
保留了特朗普所做的所有事情并

966
00:41:30,839 –> 00:41:33,160
added more and now Trump says I’m going
添加了更多内容，这并不奇怪。 现在特朗普说我将

967
00:41:33,160 –> 00:41:35,319
to do all the things that Biden has kept
做拜登保留的所有事情，

968
00:41:35,319 –> 00:41:37,640
in place and I’m going to do more this
而且我将做得更多，这

969
00:41:37,640 –> 00:41:40,440
is not a self-inflicted wound the United
不是自残，

970
00:41:40,440 –> 00:41:43,800
States has closed the market to China
美国已经对中国关闭了市场，

971
00:41:43,800 –> 00:41:46,960
okay is that smart no it’s not smart is
好吧，这很聪明，不，不是 聪明的是

972
00:41:46,960 –> 00:41:51,040
it leading to uh is it by the way
这会导致呃，顺便说一句，

973
00:41:51,040 –> 00:41:55,240
recuperating American manufacturing jobs
美国制造业就业岗位恢复

974
00:41:55,240 –> 00:41:58,480
zero it may shift them a bit it make may
为零，这可能会稍微改变它们，这可能会

975
00:41:58,480 –> 00:42:01,760
make things less efficient it may may
降低效率，这可能

976
00:42:01,760 –> 00:42:04,520
make all of you lose a bit more money or
会让你们所有人损失更多的钱，或者

977
00:42:04,520 –> 00:42:07,520
not make as much money but is it going
赚不到那么多钱，但这会

978
00:42:07,520 –> 00:42:10,520
to solve any single economic problem in
吗？ 解决美国的任何单一经济问题

979
00:42:10,520 –> 00:42:14,079
the United States no way let
不可能让

980
00:42:14,079 –> 00:42:17,920
me John let let John spicy I I just want
我约翰让让约翰辣我我只是

981
00:42:17,920 –> 00:42:20,000
to ask Jeff a question on
想问杰夫一个关于

982
00:42:20,000 –> 00:42:24,359
this uh my argument is that this is the
这个的问题呃我的论点是这就是

983
00:42:24,359 –> 00:42:27,240
way the world Works yes I know and it is
世界运作的方式是的我知道，事实就是

984
00:42:27,240 –> 00:42:30,400
and it is but if I’m describing how the
如此，但是 如果我正在描述世界是如何

985
00:42:30,400 –> 00:42:33,960
world really works how do you beat me
运作的 你打败我了吗，

986
00:42:33,960 –> 00:42:36,520
the the reason is you’ve described a
因为你描述了一个

987
00:42:36,520 –> 00:42:39,160
world you’ve described I think better
你所描述的世界，我认为

988
00:42:39,160 –> 00:42:43,839
than any person I ever read or know how
比我读过的任何人或了解

989
00:42:43,839 –> 00:42:46,680
American foreign policy works I think
美国外交政策如何运作的人都更好，我认为

990
00:42:46,680 –> 00:42:49,680
it’s likely to get us all blown up you
这可能会让我们所有人都炸毁，

991
00:42:49,680 –> 00:42:53,440
you not and you title not not because of
你不是，你是标题 不是因为

992
00:42:53,440 –> 00:42:55,720
John but because he made an accurate
约翰，而是因为他准确地描述了

993
00:42:55,720 –> 00:42:59,200
description of a profoundly misguided
一种被严重误导的

994
00:42:59,200 –> 00:43:01,000
approach which
做法，即

995
00:43:01,000 –> 00:43:05,160
is power seeking even if you’re safe as
寻求权力，即使你作为

996
00:43:05,160 –> 00:43:08,440
a regional hegemon you’re never safe if
地区霸主是安全的，但如果

997
00:43:08,440 –> 00:43:10,559
another Regional hegemon does what you
另一个地区霸主做了你

998
00:43:10,559 –> 00:43:12,760
do no you can’t allow that to happen so
所做的事，你就永远不会安全，你不能允许 要发生这种情况，所以

999
00:43:12,760 –> 00:43:14,680
you have to metal every single place in
你必须金属化每一个 世界上唯一的地方，

1000
00:43:14,680 –> 00:43:18,000
the world this now all I’m saying wait
现在我要说的一切，等等，

1001
00:43:18,000 –> 00:43:19,200
let me just finish because it’s
让我说完，因为

1002
00:43:19,200 –> 00:43:22,240
important that it is important to
重要的是，重要的是

1003
00:43:22,240 –> 00:43:25,480
say try this in the nuclear age you
要说在核时代尝试这个，你

1004
00:43:25,480 –> 00:43:27,640
don’t get a second chance
没有第二次机会，

1005
00:43:27,640 –> 00:43:31,119
so this to me is the most definitive
所以这对我来说是最明确的

1006
00:43:31,119 –> 00:43:35,359
fact of Our Lives which is we are now in
事实 我们的生活，我们现在正处于

1007
00:43:35,359 –> 00:43:39,280
a war direct War direct War not proxy
一场战争中，直接战争，不是代理

1008
00:43:39,280 –> 00:43:42,040
war direct war with Russia which has
战争，与拥有6000枚核弹头的俄罗斯直接战争，

1009
00:43:42,040 –> 00:43:45,599
6,000 nuclear warheads I can’t think of

1010
00:43:45,599 –> 00:43:48,599
anything more imbecilic than that aside
除了我一步一步知道的事实之外，我想不出还有什么比这更愚蠢的了，

1011
00:43:48,599 –> 00:43:51,079
from the fact that I know step by step

1012
00:43:51,079 –> 00:43:54,119
because I saw it with my own eyes how we
因为我看到了 我亲眼所见 我们是如何

1013
00:43:54,119 –> 00:43:56,319
got into that mess because we thought we
陷入混乱的，因为我们认为我们

1014
00:43:56,319 –> 00:44:00,280
had to medal up to including putting
必须获得奖牌，包括让

1015
00:44:00,280 –> 00:44:03,319
NATO into Georgia in the caucuses of all
北约进入格鲁吉亚和乌克兰的所有地方的预选会议，

1016
00:44:03,319 –> 00:44:06,880
places and Ukraine so we made that
所以我们做到了，

1017
00:44:06,880 –> 00:44:09,760
because we have to medal because we
因为我们必须获得奖牌，因为

1018
00:44:09,760 –> 00:44:13,400
couldn’t let good enough uh stand if we
如果我们这样做，我们就不能让足够好的呃站起来

1019
00:44:13,400 –> 00:44:16,000
do the same with China there will be a
与中国一样，也会有一场

1020
00:44:16,000 –> 00:44:19,240
war but it’s not like reading about the
战争，但这不像阅读

1021
00:44:19,240 –> 00:44:22,200
Crimean War or World War One or World
克里米亚战争、第一次世界大战或

1022
00:44:22,200 –> 00:44:25,240
War II that’s my difference this is a
第二次世界大战，这是我的区别，这是一个

1023
00:44:25,240 –> 00:44:27,400
fine theory that explains a lot of
很好的理论，可以解释很多

1024
00:44:27,400 –> 00:44:32,200
things but damn if you can make chat GPT
事情，但是该死的，如果你可以聊天 GPT

1025
00:44:32,200 –> 00:44:35,520
or you can make Optimus or you can make
或者你 可以使擎天柱或 你可以做

1026
00:44:35,520 –> 00:44:39,000
all the rest we can avoid nuclear war so
剩下的一切，我们可以避免核战争，所以

1027
00:44:39,000 –> 00:44:41,040
just do a little bit better than saying
只要比说

1028
00:44:41,040 –> 00:44:43,079
it’s
这是

1029
00:44:43,079 –> 00:44:45,119
inevitable all right
不可避免的好一点，好吧，

1030
00:44:45,119 –> 00:44:47,280
so we only have a minute left so I want
所以我们只剩下一分钟了，所以我

1031
00:44:47,280 –> 00:44:49,240
to give it to John I just want to ask he
想把它交给约翰，我只是想问他

1032
00:44:49,240 –> 00:44:50,520
had a question I know but we only have a
有一个我知道的问题 但我们

1033
00:44:50,520 –> 00:44:52,440
minute left and it’s we got to add five
只剩下一分钟了，我们必须增加五

1034
00:44:52,440 –> 00:44:54,000
minutes this is the best panel I’ve ever
分钟，这是

1035
00:44:54,000 –> 00:44:55,760
been on in my life can we just add 10
我一生中参加过的最好的小组，我们可以只增加 10

1036
00:44:55,760 –> 00:44:58,040
minutes minutes we got to add 5 or 10
分钟吗？我们必须增加 5 或 10

1037
00:44:58,040 –> 00:44:59,800
minutes the best panel is this the best
分钟，最好的小组是这个 有史以来最好的

1038
00:44:59,800 –> 00:45:02,920
panel ever I feel like calling a respond
小组，我想做出回应

1039
00:45:02,920 –> 00:45:05,319
wa wa before okay we got 5 minutes so
哇哇，好的，我们有 5 分钟的时间，所以

1040
00:45:05,319 –> 00:45:07,800
before before we leave this topic John
在我们离开这个话题之前，约翰，

1041
00:45:07,800 –> 00:45:10,240
your book is called the tragedy of great
你的书叫做《大

1042
00:45:10,240 –> 00:45:12,720
power politics you clearly understand
国政治的悲剧》，你清楚地了解

1043
00:45:12,720 –> 00:45:15,559
the tragic aspect of how great power

1044
00:45:15,559 –> 00:45:17,800
rivalry great power competition can lead
大国竞争如何导致

1045
00:45:17,800 –> 00:45:19,960
to disaster what Jeff is saying is we’re
灾难的悲剧性方面，杰夫所说的是我们 现在正

1046
00:45:19,960 –> 00:45:22,040
now in the nuclear age and it’s going to
处于核时代，它将

1047
00:45:22,040 –> 00:45:25,079
lead to nuclear war so do we have to be
导致核战争，所以我们必须

1048
00:45:25,079 –> 00:45:28,559
on this path or is there way off of it
走这条路还是还有很长的路要走，

1049
00:45:28,559 –> 00:45:32,400
two points in my heart I’m with Jeff in
我心里有两点我和杰夫在一起，

1050
00:45:32,400 –> 00:45:36,240
my head I’m not with Jeff I wish he were
我不和杰夫在一起 我希望他是

1051
00:45:36,240 –> 00:45:38,599
right but I don’t believe he’s right to
对的，但我不相信 他

1052
00:45:38,599 –> 00:45:41,559
answer your question head-on I believe
正面回答你的问题是正确的，我相信我们

1053
00:45:41,559 –> 00:45:43,960
that there is no way out we are in an
没有出路，我们被关在

1054
00:45:43,960 –> 00:45:46,240
iron cage this is just the way
铁笼子里，这就是

1055
00:45:46,240 –> 00:45:48,559
International politics works and it’s
国际政治的运作方式，

1056
00:45:48,559 –> 00:45:50,640
because you’re in an anarchic system
因为你处于一个无政府主义的体系中，

1057
00:45:50,640 –> 00:45:52,160
where you can never be sure that a
你永远无法确定一个

1058
00:45:52,160 –> 00:45:53,880
really powerful state in the system
真正的 系统中的强大国家

1059
00:45:53,880 –> 00:45:55,960
won’t come after you and inflict A
不会追随你并给你造成一个

1060
00:45:55,960 –> 00:45:58,359
Century of national humiliation on you
世纪的国耻，

1061
00:45:58,359 –> 00:46:01,119
so you go to Great Lengths to avoid that
所以你会竭尽全力避免这种情况，

1062
00:46:01,119 –> 00:46:04,400
by trying to gain power at the expense
试图以牺牲另一个国家为代价来获得权力

1063
00:46:04,400 –> 00:46:07,000
of another power and that leads to all
，这会导致

1064
00:46:07,000 –> 00:46:10,720
sorts of trouble can War be avoided I
战争中的各种麻烦 避免我

1065
00:46:10,720 –> 00:46:12,760
like to distinguish between security
喜欢 区分

1066
00:46:12,760 –> 00:46:15,160
competition which I think is inevitable
我认为不可避免的安全竞争

1067
00:46:15,160 –> 00:46:17,040
and War which is where security
和安全

1068
00:46:17,040 –> 00:46:19,920
competition evolves into war I think War
竞争演变成战争的战争我认为战争是

1069
00:46:19,920 –> 00:46:22,440
can be avoided and we were thankfully
可以避免的，值得庆幸的是，我们

1070
00:46:22,440 –> 00:46:24,280
successful in that regard during the
在冷战期间在这方面取得了成功

1071
00:46:24,280 –> 00:46:27,040
Cold War and hopefully that will be the
，希望

1072
00:46:27,040 –> 00:46:29,960
case uh in the US China competition
美国也是如此 竞争

1073
00:46:29,960 –> 00:46:34,520
moving forward can I guarantee that no
继续前进 我可以保证不，

1074
00:46:34,520 –> 00:46:38,440
uh does this disturb me greatly yes but
呃，这是否让我很不安，是的，但这

1075
00:46:38,440 –> 00:46:41,200
again this is just a tragic aspect of
只是世界的一个悲惨的方面，

1076
00:46:41,200 –> 00:46:43,640
the world let me just ask one because
让我问一个，因为

Conflict in the Middle East and the path to peace

1077
00:46:43,640 –> 00:46:45,599
we’re a little bit I know we were going
我们有点我知道我们将

1078
00:46:45,599 –> 00:46:47,359
to try and talk about Middle East for a
尝试谈论中东 对于

1079
00:46:47,359 –> 00:46:49,160
good chunk of this so I just want a
其中很大一部分，所以我只想要一个

1080
00:46:49,160 –> 00:46:52,359
scenario uh uh propose or kind of give
场景呃 呃建议或者给

1081
00:46:52,359 –> 00:46:54,160
you guys a scenario get your reaction
你们一个场景，让你们做出反应，

1082
00:46:54,160 –> 00:46:55,680
because it is kind of what feels to be
因为这感觉像是

1083
00:46:55,680 –> 00:46:58,880
the most imminent uh theater of conflict
最迫在眉睫的冲突战场

1084
00:46:58,880 –> 00:47:03,359
uh the West Bank um the the Israelis are
呃西岸嗯以色列人正在

1085
00:47:03,359 –> 00:47:05,480
buttressing the settlements there’s a
支持定居点有

1086
00:47:05,480 –> 00:47:07,079
lot of checkpoints things are getting
很多检查站事情变得

1087
00:47:07,079 –> 00:47:09,000
very tense they’re running raids and
非常严重 紧张局势，他们正在进行突袭，

1088
00:47:09,000 –> 00:47:10,400
it’s becoming a very difficult place to
这对巴勒斯坦人来说已经成为一个非常困难的

1089
00:47:10,400 –> 00:47:11,839
live for Palestinians and there’s a real
居住地，人们真正

1090
00:47:11,839 –> 00:47:13,559
concern that the West Bank collapses and
担心西岸崩溃，

1091
00:47:13,559 –> 00:47:16,480
Israelis and Israelis but there’s a real
以色列人和以色列人，但西岸确实存在

1092
00:47:16,480 –> 00:47:18,520
risk that the West Bank collapses and
风险

1093
00:47:18,520 –> 00:47:21,760
turns into a real conflict Zone if that
如果发生这种情况，约旦就会崩溃并变成真正的冲突区，

1094
00:47:21,760 –> 00:47:24,040
happens the jordanians are sitting right
约旦人就坐在

1095
00:47:24,040 –> 00:47:24,960
there and they’re not going to let
那里，他们不会让

1096
00:47:24,960 –> 00:47:26,520
Palestinians get slaughtered they’re
巴勒斯坦人被屠杀，他们

1097
00:47:26,520 –> 00:47:27,760
going to have to do something and
将不得不做点什么，而且

1098
00:47:27,760 –> 00:47:29,839
they’re such a strong Ally of the United
他们是美国如此强大的盟友

1099
00:47:29,839 –> 00:47:33,079
States does that trigger a
引发一场

1100
00:47:33,079 –> 00:47:36,000
theater of response where what is Saudi
反应，沙特

1101
00:47:36,000 –> 00:47:37,839
going to do are others going to be drawn
将做什么，其他国家将被吸引

1102
00:47:37,839 –> 00:47:39,880
to the region does the collapse of the
到该地区，西岸的崩溃

1103
00:47:39,880 –> 00:47:41,760
West Bank or the the the conflict that
或

1104
00:47:41,760 –> 00:47:43,599
seems to be brewing in the West Bank
西岸似乎正在酝酿的冲突是否

1105
00:47:43,599 –> 00:47:46,280
become this kind of Tinder Box for
会成为这种火药盒？

1106
00:47:46,280 –> 00:47:48,240
everyone showing up and getting involved
每个人都出现并参与其中

1107
00:47:48,240 –> 00:47:51,520
and um uh and create some sort of
嗯嗯，制造某种

1108
00:47:51,520 –> 00:47:53,839
regional issue that we get drawn into in
区域问题，我们会以

1109
00:47:53,839 –> 00:47:57,240
a bigger way can I start and have John
更大的方式卷入其中

1110
00:47:57,240 –> 00:48:00,200
have the last word uh you know I I work

1111
00:48:00,200 –> 00:48:04,000
uh each day at the UN um and discuss

1112
00:48:04,000 –> 00:48:05,760
this issue with ambassadors from all

1113
00:48:05,760 –> 00:48:06,760
over the

1114
00:48:06,760 –> 00:48:10,599
world there is over the last 50 years a
在过去的 50 年里，世界就如何

1115
00:48:10,599 –> 00:48:14,160
a an agreement on what would make for
实现和平达成了一项协议

1116
00:48:14,160 –> 00:48:19,119
peace and the agreement is uh two states
，该协议是呃两个国家

1117
00:48:19,119 –> 00:48:22,040
uh maybe with a big wall between them on
呃，也许在

1118
00:48:22,040 –> 00:48:25,880
the 4th of June 1967 borders with a
1967 年 6 月 4 日，它们之间有一堵高墙，以

1119
00:48:25,880 –> 00:48:27,319
state of Palestine
巴勒斯坦国为边界

1120
00:48:27,319 –> 00:48:30,920
being the 194th UN member state and its
联合国第194个成员国及其

1121
00:48:30,920 –> 00:48:33,400
capital in East Jerusalem and control
首都在东耶路撒冷并

1122
00:48:33,400 –> 00:48:36,760
over the Islamic holy sites and that is
控制伊斯兰圣地这就是

1123
00:48:36,760 –> 00:48:39,240
international law the international
国际法

1124
00:48:39,240 –> 00:48:41,640
court of justice just reaffirmed that
国际法院刚刚重申以色列

1125
00:48:41,640 –> 00:48:44,000
the Israeli settlements in the West Bank
在约旦河西岸的定居点

1126
00:48:44,000 –> 00:48:47,760
are illegal uh the uh international
是非法的呃呃国际

1127
00:48:47,760 –> 00:48:51,400
criminal court uh uh is likely to find
刑事法庭呃呃很可能 发现

1128
00:48:51,400 –> 00:48:53,680
or icj is likely to find that Israel is
或国际法院很可能会发现以色列

1129
00:48:53,680 –> 00:48:56,240
in violation of the 1948 genocide
违反了1948年的《种族灭绝

1130
00:48:56,240 –> 00:48:57,319
convention
公约》，

1131
00:48:57,319 –> 00:48:59,799
which I very much believe it to be in
我非常相信它

1132
00:48:59,799 –> 00:49:04,119
violation so my own solution to this is
违反了这一公约，所以我自己的解决方案是

1133
00:49:04,119 –> 00:49:07,000
Implement International law two states
实施国际法，两个国家

1134
00:49:07,000 –> 00:49:09,200
build the wall as high as you need to
根据需要修建隔离墙

1135
00:49:09,200 –> 00:49:12,920
build but uh you give Palestinian rights
建立但是呃你给予巴勒斯坦人权利

1136
00:49:12,920 –> 00:49:15,319
you establish a state of Palestine you
你建立一个巴勒斯坦国你

1137
00:49:15,319 –> 00:49:17,520
stop the Israeli Slaughter of
阻止以色列对巴勒斯坦人的屠杀

1138
00:49:17,520 –> 00:49:19,520
Palestinians you stop the Israeli
你阻止以色列

1139
00:49:19,520 –> 00:49:23,200
apartheid state and uh you have uh two
种族隔离国家并且呃你有两个

1140
00:49:23,200 –> 00:49:26,280
states living side by side Israel is
国家毗邻共存以色列

1141
00:49:26,280 –> 00:49:29,680
dead set against that uh the entire
坚决反对呃整个

1142
00:49:29,680 –> 00:49:33,880
Israeli political uh governance now is
以色列政治呃 现在的治理

1143
00:49:33,880 –> 00:49:35,799
dead set against that hundreds of
坚决反对，

1144
00:49:35,799 –> 00:49:38,520
thousands of illegal settlers in the
西岸数十万非法定居者

1145
00:49:38,520 –> 00:49:40,559
West Bank are dead set against that
坚决反对，

1146
00:49:40,559 –> 00:49:44,680
smotrich benir Galant Netanyahu are dead
斯莫特里奇·贝尼尔·加兰特·内塔尼亚胡也

1147
00:49:44,680 –> 00:49:47,599
set against that so my view is it has
坚决反对，所以我的观点是，这

1148
00:49:47,599 –> 00:49:49,599
nothing to do with what Israel wants it
与以色列希望它

1149
00:49:49,599 –> 00:49:51,079
has to do with enforcement of
做的事情无关。 与执行

1150
00:49:51,079 –> 00:49:53,760
international law so I want to see this
国际法有关，所以我希望看到这一

1151
00:49:53,760 –> 00:49:56,760
imposed not because Israel agrees to it
规定的实施不是因为以色列同意，

1152
00:49:56,760 –> 00:49:59,720
but because it is imposed and there is
而是因为它被实施了，并且有

1153
00:49:59,720 –> 00:50:02,240
one country that stands in the way of
一个国家阻碍

1154
00:50:02,240 –> 00:50:05,920
imposing this not Iran not the Saudis
实施这一规定，不是伊朗，不是沙特，

1155
00:50:05,920 –> 00:50:09,760
not Egypt not Russia not China not any
不是埃及，不是俄罗斯，不是中国，不是任何国家

1156
00:50:09,760 –> 00:50:11,640
country in the European Union one
欧盟国家，一个

1157
00:50:11,640 –> 00:50:13,880
country and one country alone and that
国家，一个国家，那

1158
00:50:13,880 –> 00:50:16,240
is because of the United States of
是因为

1159
00:50:16,240 –> 00:50:19,760
America and the is Israel Lobby somebody
美利坚合众国和以色列游说团，有人也

1160
00:50:19,760 –> 00:50:21,480
wrote a very good book about that too
写了一本关于这个问题的非常好的书，

1161
00:50:21,480 –> 00:50:23,480
that I know uh the best book ever
我知道

1162
00:50:23,480 –> 00:50:27,680
written about it by John uh uh and um
约翰有史以来写过最好的书 嗯，

1163
00:50:27,680 –> 00:50:30,200
that’s what stops the solution that
这就是阻止解决方案的原因

1164
00:50:30,200 –> 00:50:32,520
could bring peace and I believe we
可以带来和平，我相信我们

1165
00:50:32,520 –> 00:50:35,319
should bring peace because not only
应该带来和平，因为

1166
00:50:35,319 –> 00:50:36,640
would that bring peace to the
这不仅可以给

1167
00:50:36,640 –> 00:50:39,119
Palestinians and peace to the Israelis
巴勒斯坦人和以色列人带来和平，

1168
00:50:39,119 –> 00:50:41,599
but it would avoid potentially another
而且可以避免另一次可能

1169
00:50:41,599 –> 00:50:44,599
flasho that could easily end up in World
很容易导致第二次世界大战的闪现

1170
00:50:44,599 –> 00:50:48,319
War II let me answer your question about
让我回答你关于

1171
00:50:48,319 –> 00:50:50,799
escalation potential the jordanians
升级可能性的问题 以色列

1172
00:50:50,799 –> 00:50:54,640
coming in uh Israel faces three big
面临着三大

1173
00:50:54,640 –> 00:50:56,640
problems aside from problems with
问题，除了

1174
00:50:56,640 –> 00:50:59,440
centrifical forces inside the society
社会内部的离心力问题，

1175
00:50:59,440 –> 00:51:01,760
one is the Palestinian problem which is
一是

1176
00:51:01,760 –> 00:51:04,599
both in Gaza and in the West Bank it’s
加沙和西岸的巴勒斯坦问题，

1177
00:51:04,599 –> 00:51:08,960
one two is Hezbollah and three is
一是真主党，三是

1178
00:51:08,960 –> 00:51:11,839
Iran I think there is virtually no
伊朗，我认为几乎没有

1179
00:51:11,839 –> 00:51:14,720
chance of what you described happening
机会 你所描述的情况

1180
00:51:14,720 –> 00:51:16,640
which is if the Israelis were to go on a
是，如果以色列人

1181
00:51:16,640 –> 00:51:18,760
rampage in the West Bank similar what
在约旦河西岸横冲直撞，就像

1182
00:51:18,760 –> 00:51:21,280
they’ve done in Gaza that the jordanians
他们在加沙所做的那样，约旦人

1183
00:51:21,280 –> 00:51:23,119
would come in or the Egyptians or the
或埃及人或

1184
00:51:23,119 –> 00:51:25,319
Saudis they simply don’t have the
沙特人就会进来，他们根本不具备

1185
00:51:25,319 –> 00:51:28,200
military capability this is a scenario
这样的军事能力

1186
00:51:28,200 –> 00:51:31,400
where the Israelis completely dominate
以色列人完全占主导地位的情况，

1187
00:51:31,400 –> 00:51:33,920
so in terms of escalation with regard to
所以就

1188
00:51:33,920 –> 00:51:36,520
the Israel Palestine problem I don’t
以色列巴勒斯坦问题的升级而言，我

1189
00:51:36,520 –> 00:51:39,079
think there’s much potential Hezbollah
认为真主党没有太大的潜力，

1190
00:51:39,079 –> 00:51:42,160
is a different issue uh but mainly
是一个不同的问题，呃，但主要是

1191
00:51:42,160 –> 00:51:45,119
because it’s linked with Iran right and
因为它与伊朗权利有关，而

1192
00:51:45,119 –> 00:51:48,559
Iran is the really dangerous flasho
伊朗才是真正的问题 这是危险的闪现，

1193
00:51:48,559 –> 00:51:50,240
because as you know the Russians are now
因为正如你所知，俄罗斯人现在

1194
00:51:50,240 –> 00:51:52,359
closely allied with the Iranians the
与伊朗人紧密结盟，

1195
00:51:52,359 –> 00:51:55,200
Chinese are moving in that direction as
中国人也在朝这个方向前进

1196
00:51:55,200 –> 00:51:57,119
well and
，

1197
00:51:57,119 –> 00:52:00,720
if Israel gets involved in a war with
如果以色列卷入与

1198
00:52:00,720 –> 00:52:03,359
Iran we’re going to come in in all
伊朗的战争，我们很可能会介入，还

1199
00:52:03,359 –> 00:52:06,599
likelihood remember when the Israelis
记得以色列人

1200
00:52:06,599 –> 00:52:12,040
attacked the uh the Iranian Embassy in
袭击伊朗时的情况吗？ 嗯，伊朗驻

1201
00:52:12,040 –> 00:52:16,280
Damascus on April 1st on April
大马士革大使馆于 4 月 1 日和 4 月

1202
00:52:16,280 –> 00:52:19,760
14th the Iranians retaliated reciprocal
14 日，伊朗人进行了报复性

1203
00:52:19,760 –> 00:52:22,440
response yeah but but we were involved
回应，是的，但我们参与了，

1204
00:52:22,440 –> 00:52:24,319
we were we were forewarned weren’t we
我们被预先警告了，不是

1205
00:52:24,319 –> 00:52:25,920
yes we were forewarned but the point is
吗，是的，我们被预先警告了，但重点是

1206
00:52:25,920 –> 00:52:28,319
that we were involved in the fighting
我们 参与战斗

1207
00:52:28,319 –> 00:52:30,559
right we were involved with the Israelis
吧，我们与以色列人、

1208
00:52:30,559 –> 00:52:32,040
with the French the British the
法国人、英国人、

1209
00:52:32,040 –> 00:52:33,960
jordanians and the Saudis we were all
约旦人和沙特人都

1210
00:52:33,960 –> 00:52:36,319
involved in the fighting so this gets at
参与了战斗，所以

1211
00:52:36,319 –> 00:52:39,640
the escalation problem now to counter
现在要解决升级问题，以应对

1212
00:52:39,640 –> 00:52:43,319
the Iranian escalation scenario the fact
伊朗升级的情况，事实

1213
00:52:43,319 –> 00:52:45,680
is Iran does not want a war with the
是伊朗不希望发生冲突。 与

1214
00:52:45,680 –> 00:52:48,160
United States and the United States does
美国的战争，美国

1215
00:52:48,160 –> 00:52:51,000
not want a war with Iran and it’s the
不想与伊朗发生战争，而

1216
00:52:51,000 –> 00:52:54,000
Israelis especially Benjamin Netanyahu
以色列人，尤其是本杰明·内塔尼亚胡

1217
00:52:54,000 –> 00:52:55,960
has been who has been trying to sort of
一直试图将

1218
00:52:55,960 –> 00:52:59,160
suck us into a war because he wants us
我们卷入一场战争，因为他希望我们

1219
00:52:59,160 –> 00:53:02,920
the United States to really whack Iran
美国能够真正削弱伊朗

1220
00:53:02,920 –> 00:53:05,440
weaken it militarily and especially to
它在军事上，特别是在

1221
00:53:05,440 –> 00:53:07,480
go after its nuclear capabilities
追求其核能力，

1222
00:53:07,480 –> 00:53:09,559
because as you well know they are close
因为众所周知，他们已经

1223
00:53:09,559 –> 00:53:11,400
to the point where they can develop
接近可以发展

1224
00:53:11,400 –> 00:53:13,880
nuclear weapons so the Israelis are the
核武器的地步，所以以色列人

1225
00:53:13,880 –> 00:53:17,280
ones who want us to get involved in a
希望我们卷入

1226
00:53:17,280 –> 00:53:19,720
big war with Iran that’s the escalation
与伊朗的一场大战，这是升级的

1227
00:53:19,720 –> 00:53:22,880
flasho and The $64,000 question is
闪光和 64,000 美元的问题是，

1228
00:53:22,880 –> 00:53:25,000
whether you think the United States and
你是否认为美国和

1229
00:53:25,000 –> 00:53:28,880
Iran kind of loting can work together to
伊朗的抽签可以共同努力，

1230
00:53:28,880 –> 00:53:31,359
prevent the Israelis from getting us
阻止以色列人让我们知道，

1231
00:53:31,359 –> 00:53:32,640
that that question will be answered

1232
00:53:32,640 –> 00:53:35,799
based on the next who who who leads the

1233
00:53:35,799 –> 00:53:38,920
next Administration well if you believe
如果你认为

1234
00:53:38,920 –> 00:53:41,040
that it matters who leads the next
谁很重要，那么这个问题将根据下一任谁领导下一届政府来回答。 线索 下届

1235
00:53:41,040 –> 00:53:43,119
Administration that’s
政府是

1236
00:53:43,119 –> 00:53:46,839
true take it out thank you let me just
真的，把它拿出来，谢谢，让我只

1237
00:53:46,839 –> 00:53:51,760
say Jeffrey and John now I know why saxs
说杰弗里和约翰，现在我知道为什么萨克斯也

1238
00:53:51,760 –> 00:53:53,920
will not stop talking about you too this
不会停止谈论你，这

1239
00:53:53,920 –> 00:53:56,040
was the most amazing panel of the event
是迄今为止最令人惊奇的活动小组，

1240
00:53:56,040 –> 00:53:58,880
so far are give it up for Jeffrey Sachs
放弃杰弗里·萨克斯

1241
00:53:58,880 –> 00:54:01,799
and John Mir shimer all
和约翰·米尔 闪光

1242
00:54:01,799 –> 00:54:05,799
right wow
好吧哇